Policy Rate

Wholesale inflation has been muted throughout the year

India to grow 6.5% in FY26; rising uncertainty to bring down global growth, says Fitch

The rating agency kept India’s FY26 forecast unchanged at 6.5 percent while projecting a higher 6.3 percent growth for FY27 from 6.2 percent in its December update

Lower inflation has opened room for more easing; FY26 inflation expected at 4%: Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley expects inflation to settle at 3.9 percent in March and the Reserve Bank to cut rates by another 50 bps over the next two meetings to take the policy rate to 5.75 percent

Wholesale inflation rose to a two-month high of 2.38% in February

Retail inflation declined to a seven-month low of 3.6 percent, with food inflation declining to its lowest level in 21 months

India’s retail inflation eases to 7-month low of 3.61% in February

Food inflation eased below 6 percent for the first time since September 2024

More cuts on the anvil, 78% probability of RBI cutting rate in April: MC Poll

Nearly 90 percent of the 18 economists polled by Moneycontrol expect the MPC deliver a 25 bps, or a 0.25 percentage point, cut in April

Wholesale inflation eased to 2.31% in January

Consumer inflation declined below 5 percent for the first time in five months in January

MC Analysis: Inflation stayed at 4% in just 13 of 102 months since MPC's inception

In the 57 months since Covid first hit India, prices have gone below 4 percent only twice in 57 months

Retail inflation eases to 5.48% in November from 6.21% in October

Consumer prices have remained above 5 percent for a third consecutive month

Banking Central | And, MPC has a perfect case to defer rate cuts beyond December  

The latest inflation numbers cast doubt on the MPC’s rate-cutting plans. The committee may have to wait longer to lower the rates 

RBI to pause in December as inflation and Trump change the status quo: Economists

Economists noted that inflation would likely be higher than the 4.8 percent target set by the RBI for the third quarter of the fiscal year, which will lead the MPC to hold the policy rate for the eleventh consecutive time at its December meeting

RBI to hold the policy rate in October meeting; 25 bps cut likely in December: MC Poll

Of the 18 economists polled by Moneycontrol, just three predicted the possibility of a 25 bps rate cut in the October meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee

The relationship between Fed and RBI policies may not be that simple, shows data

RBI and Fed policies have seldom moved in tandem; also, a Moneycontrol poll shows that RBI may wait till December before instituting a rate cut

Lower inflation, manufacturing pick-up split opinions on rate cuts

Opinions vary from a rate cut in October to no cuts in FY25; MPC had kept rates on hold for the ninth consecutive time in August.

Households expect non-food and food inflation to rise in tandem, see faster rise

Inflation expectations are at the highest level in over a year, and 90 percent households expect prices to rise. Over two-thirds expect them to rise faster than the current rate.

FM distances from Economic Survey’s idea of excluding food from inflation targeting

Remarks come just days after RBI governor had emphasised on importance of food inflation targeting post MPC decision

Manufacturing activity eases to 58.1 in July, experts foresee pickup in capex utilisation soon

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index remained higher than the long-term average

Equity values are at the high end of the valuation range: JP Morgan Chase's Jamie Dimon

The Chairman and CEO of the bank wrote that the odds of a soft landing are much lower than what the market is factoring in.

RBI MPC to be cautious about risk from food inflation, likely to keep repo rate unchanged

Goldman's analysts forecast 5.2 percent headline inflation for Q1CY24, driven by food inflation

Short Call | Change in repo rate unlikely at RBI MPC; Delta Corp awaits ease in GST, IEX shadow pilot, Trent in focus

Investors will monitor banking, auto and real estate stocks closely as RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das spells out the fineprints at the RBI MPC on February 8

Short Call: Rates rule the Street on MPC day; power stocks charged up; Five Star Business, IRCON, HUL in focus

The RBI is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged on December 8. One section feels there could be a cut in rates shortly, while another feels the RBI won't do so before the Fed

World economy this week: US jobs report, Euro inflation, China slowdown in focus

On Monday, Israel is expected to deliver one of the world’s first rate moves of 2023, extending its longest cycle of monetary tightening in decades

Real policy rates are well below the pre-pandemic levels 

The data shows that the relation between the policy rate, inflation and growth is very different now than before the pandemic

Consumer confidence is back to pre-pandemic levels

The RBI survey’s Future Expectations Index for November 2022 is higher than its level in November 2019 

Fed officials won’t relent on path to 4.5% and may move higher

The aim, which is widely shared among the US central bank’s 19 policymakers, suggests they are on course to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate increase next month