Deutsche Bank believes price hike poses risk to short-term value growth trajectory for ITC‘s cigarettes. Earlier in 2014/15 when price-point of Gold Flake Kings (premium cigarettes of 84mm length) reached and crossed Rs 10 per stick it did result in a volume deceleration and decline.
On May 5, ITC had said it has shut down its production till the time it is able to comply with “interim requirements†of 85 per cent pictorial warnings.
Currently, foreign direct investment (FDI) is prohibited in manufacturing tobacco. However, what DIPP is also considering a ban in technology collaboration. It will mean including the licensing of franchises as well as brand name in management contract and in case of Godfrey Phillips this regards with the brand name of Marlboro.
The Kolkata-headquartered firm had suspended manufacturing at all its five cigarette factories saying there was a lack of clarity in policy regarding printing of larger pictorial warnings on the packets. All other cigarette manufacturers had taken similar decisions.
Acccording to a CNBC-TV18 poll, cigarette volumes may decline of 15-18 percent. Volume-generating brands like Gold Flake may see contraction of 20 percent and Classic brand may see volumes decline of 10 percent due to price hikes.
According to Nomura, first half of FY16 is likely to see single digit EBIT growth in the cigarette business and hence reduced multiple for the cigarette business further from 20x to 17x to reflect this risk.
Diversified group ITC Ltd today said it has increased prices of its Gold Flake cigarette brand by over 7 percent.
Shares of cigarettes to hotels major ITC gained over 1 percent and hit a life high of Rs 316.50 on NSE on Thursday as value buying continued in the counter. The stock has gained over 9 percent since Dec 2012-end.
ITC shares gained over 1 percent on Tuesday on reports that it has increased prices of some of its cigarette brands.
Cigarettes to FMCG to hotels major ITC has been very aggressive in the FMCG space in recent times, with a slew of personal care and food products launched, backed up by a strong advertising push. However, its mainstay still remains cigarettes and its here that it aims to shake up the market with a new 64mm cigarette.