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    • Prolonged Iran conflict to keep commodity markets on edge ahead of FOMC, China data

      Looking ahead, markets will focus on the upcoming policy decision from the Federal Reserve, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged but updated economic projections will be closely watched.

    • The oil bounty India cannot count on anymore

      Volatility in energy is at its peak due to geopolitical tensions in Middle East which continue to disrupt supply chains, and the discounts that once drove India’s crude arbitrage has vanished.

    • How to follow the trend using PCR OI: Shubham Agarwal

      Markets don't move in straight lines. They bounce on the way down and pull back on the way up. That's exactly what catches traders out, confusing a retracement for a reversal.

    • Geopolitical tensions rise, but why aren’t gold prices?

      A combination of stronger dollar and higher inflationary environment in turn leading to probable rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve are hindrances for gold prices moving higher, despite the geo-political risk arising out of the war.

    • Oil's sudden shock: How a diplomatic standoff turned into a global supply crisis

      Any renewed geopolitical escalation or prolonged disruption to tanker traffic could keep prices elevated, while sustained high oil prices also risk fuelling inflation and increasing diplomatic pressure to restore stability.

    • The Hormuz shock: Why a narrow Strait matters for India’s economy and markets

      If Brent crude sustains above the $90 per barrel mark, the implications for India could extend well beyond higher fuel prices. A widening current account deficit, pressure on the rupee, and a potential delay in interest-rate easing could begin to weigh on corporate earnings and market valuations.

    • US-Iran tensions to be in spotlight next week as US economic data looms

      Markets remain fixated on the US–Iran conflict as Trump has vowed to strike “very hard,” while Iran’s president apologized for regional strikes and said Iran would refrain from attacking neighbouring countries “unless attacked first”. Crude oil and aluminum stand to gain most if the conflict deepens.

    • Put Ratio Backspread: Strategy to limit downside during sharp pullbacks

      Put Ratio Backspread limits your downside during sharp pullbacks while keeping you positioned to profit when a significant market breakdown occurs.

    • Rising Middle East tensions, oil prices pose multiple risks for India

      On the current account side, a rise in crude oil prices by $10 a barrel widens the CAD by around $14-15 billion.

    • Don't fight the range, trade it: Shubham Agarwal

      In a range market, the cleanest trades happen near the edges. Sell near the upper extreme. Buy near the lower extreme.

    • India markets seen resilient to US-Iran-Israel tensions; risk rises if oil remains high

      The current assessment is that US doesn’t want a protracted war and is likely to terminate it in a matter of 4-6 weeks. In that case, the Indian markets should be quite resilient.

    • Geopolitical risks, China policy, US jobs data to shape commodity markets next week

      If US labour market conditions remain robust, expectations for a June rate cut may fade further. Conversely, a weaker jobs report could prompt markets to recalibrate rate expectations.

    • US-Iran tensions, tariff fallout and China reopening to shape commodities next week

      On the data front, US weekly jobless claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, along with speeches from several FOMC officials, will be closely watched as investors seek clearer guidance on the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut.

    • The Tariff is dead, Long live the Tariffs …

      The US-India trade deal will continue being discussed and progress is likely to happen to reach an agreement. However, it does give more breathing room and negotiating power to the Indian side.

    • Post Q3FY26, margin recovery and broader profits to drive market strength

      Large caps are showing relatively better breadth and valuation stability, while small caps face slower earnings momentum and multiple compression in Q3FY26.

    • The right way to trade options in expiry week: Shubham Agarwal

      Theta decay is the silent killer of option buyers. It's the daily erosion of option premium, and it doesn't move at a steady pace.

    • Commodities to watch US PCE, FOMC minutes in holiday-shortened week

      Markets will also watch the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump tariffs scheduled for February 20. The week ahead will be holiday-shortened with potentially thinner liquidity.

    • AI at any cost? Mag 7 confronts first real capex cycle test

      AI may well redefine productivity over the next decade. But markets do not price decades, they price cash flows. And in 2026, the story has shifted from growth at any cost to returns on capital deployed.

    • Monetising Your Portfolio: A practical guide to covered calls

      Use a covered call when you expect the stock to stay sideways or drift slightly higher.

    • India-US interim trade deal signals boost in FDI and technology transfer

      Reaching $100 billion in annual imports from the US is not challenging, nor is it going to step on existing domestic demand. Rather, these are typically from categories where India is anyway going to make large imports and those are critical to India’s long-term growth plans.

    • Warsh pick jolts markets: Dollar nears 98, gold whipsaws 21% then snaps back, oil rebounds above Rs 5,900

      Following a string of labour market reports that largely surprised to the downside, attention now turns to the official non-farm payrolls report due February 11 as significant downward revisions could strengthen the case for future rate cuts.

    • The era of uncertainty ends, the era of execution begins

      If January was the last meaningful dip, it wasn’t because markets suddenly became cheap. It was because India entered a phase where policy risk fell sharply, and execution took centre stage.

    • How to trade after a big trading day, explains Shubham Agarwal

      Shubham Agarwal explained the strategy investors should adopt when the character of the market has completely changed.

    • RBI keeps policy stance unchanged, commits to adequate liquidity; rates likely on hold through FY27

      While the RBI is expected to be in the long pause and stay on hold for entire FY27, Deepak Agrawal of Kotak Mahindra AMC anticipates the 10-year G-Sec yield to trade in the range of 6.60-6.80% in the near to medium term.

    • RBI MPC finds no need for immediate monetary support as comfortable with growth-inflation trajectory, hints at pause in coming meetings

      RBI is committed to proactive management of liquidity in the LAF window and the banking system, so as to keep short term yields rangebound.

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