Expert Columns

MPC April Policy Preview: The RBI's delicate interlude

For a central bank accustomed to navigating between growth and inflation, April 2026 presents a subtler challenge: managing expectations in a world where neither variable is the immediate problem, but both could yet become one

Geopolitical deadlock and US inflation data to test commodity market nerves

On the macro front, US non-farm payrolls rose by 1,78,000 in March 2026, marking the strongest job growth since late 2024 and reversing February’s weakness. This points to a resilient labour market and further reduces the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts.

Beyond the Fall: What’s a must watch to identify market bottoms

While immediate upside cannot be guaranteed and near-term volatility may persist, the broader setup suggests markets are gradually approaching a bottoming phase.

Middle East tensions a concern, but RBI likely to stay on hold for now

Critical in April policy is how the RBI communicates on the evolving risk scenarios, which could provide some clues to the markets about RBI actions in the period ahead, said Indranil Pan of Yes Bank.

New STT, New Rules | How derivatives traders must adapt: Shubham Agarwal

Focus on high-probability setups when buying options, and avoid small premiums.

RBI likely to take a calibrated approach in April policy, balancing inflation concerns with growth momentum amid West Asia turmoil

At current bond yield levels, markets appear to be pricing in the risk of cumulative rate hikes exceeding 100 bps, suggesting that a significant portion of adverse developments may already be reflected in bond valuations.

Nifty's 23,000 to act as decisive pivot for April series, short rollover suggests sell-on-rise bias

The combination of falling prices, rising volatility, and aggressive rollover participation suggests that the April series begins with short rollover dominance and defensive institutional positioning, rather than simple profit booking.

Energy shock and interest rate fears to keep commodity markets on edge next week

With no meaningful diplomatic progress between Washington and Iran, and Tehran viewing the latest US proposal as one-sided, geopolitical uncertainty continues to outweigh fundamentals, keeping markets in a risk-off mode.

From security dependence to self-reliance: The opportunity few are pricing in

Indian defence companies, for the first time in decades, are not just participants they are contenders. And if this cycle plays out the way structural shifts typically do, what lies ahead is not just growth.

How PCR OI reveals the market's reversal secret: Shubham Agarwal

When PCR OI is rising, sentiment is bullish and prices tend to follow. When PCR OI is falling, sentiment is bearish and prices tend to drift lower.

Deepening oil supply shock could push economies toward stagflation, worry policymakers

If oil prices remain elevated for an extended period, inflation expectations become a focal point. This makes a difficult environment for central bank policymakers even trickier, at a time when many are still attempting to bring inflation under control following the post-pandemic surge in prices.

Prolonged Iran conflict to keep commodity markets on edge ahead of FOMC, China data

Looking ahead, markets will focus on the upcoming policy decision from the Federal Reserve, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged but updated economic projections will be closely watched.

The oil bounty India cannot count on anymore

Volatility in energy is at its peak due to geopolitical tensions in Middle East which continue to disrupt supply chains, and the discounts that once drove India’s crude arbitrage has vanished.

How to follow the trend using PCR OI: Shubham Agarwal

Markets don't move in straight lines. They bounce on the way down and pull back on the way up. That's exactly what catches traders out, confusing a retracement for a reversal.

Geopolitical tensions rise, but why aren’t gold prices?

A combination of stronger dollar and higher inflationary environment in turn leading to probable rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve are hindrances for gold prices moving higher, despite the geo-political risk arising out of the war.

Oil's sudden shock: How a diplomatic standoff turned into a global supply crisis

Any renewed geopolitical escalation or prolonged disruption to tanker traffic could keep prices elevated, while sustained high oil prices also risk fuelling inflation and increasing diplomatic pressure to restore stability.

The Hormuz shock: Why a narrow Strait matters for India’s economy and markets

If Brent crude sustains above the $90 per barrel mark, the implications for India could extend well beyond higher fuel prices. A widening current account deficit, pressure on the rupee, and a potential delay in interest-rate easing could begin to weigh on corporate earnings and market valuations.

US-Iran tensions to be in spotlight next week as US economic data looms

Markets remain fixated on the US–Iran conflict as Trump has vowed to strike “very hard,” while Iran’s president apologized for regional strikes and said Iran would refrain from attacking neighbouring countries “unless attacked first”. Crude oil and aluminum stand to gain most if the conflict deepens.