How the Maratha quota verdict will benefit BJP in forthcoming Assembly elections

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With Bombay High Court verdict upholding the constitutional validity of reservation for Maratha community coming in just months before Maharashtra goes to polls, experts are of the opinion that it will benefit the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during elections.

The Marathas, which form about one-third of the population of the state, are reportedly the single biggest voting bloc in Maharashtra. The community wields considerable influence in the state's politics, to the extent that of the 18 Chief Ministers of Maharashtra, 11 belong to the community.

Moreover, according to reports, the numerical strength of the Marathas can potentially influence results in 200 of Maharashtra's 288 Assembly seats.

Traditionally seen as a loyal support base for the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), experts and BJP leaders have stated that the saffron party made concentrated efforts over the past five years to reach out to the community. The June 27 verdict, BJP leaders say, will provide a "substantial boost" in gaining influence for the party within the Maratha community.

"We have always said we believe in 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas.' This verdict is a push in that direction," a BJP leader in the state told Moneycontrol.

"Politically speaking, the verdict will of course help us, but we have been making inroads over the past couple of years in nurturing leaders from the community at every level of the party. That has helped us a lot," the leader added.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, had, in 2014 made an attempt to bring in Maratha quota but was struck down by Bombay High Court. Since then, Fadnavis and the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena government have been at the receiving end of the fury of agitators demanding reservation. The protests had intensified over the past two years, and had brought state capital Mumbai and its surrounding areas to a halt number of times.

Also Read | The challenges ahead for the Maratha quota bill

BJP leaders say what adds to Fadnavis' and the government's success is the fact that while an attempt was made by the previous Congress-NCP government in bringing the quota, they had failed. "We succeeded where they failed, and that should be highlighted," the BJP leader said.

The fact that Fadnavis, a CM belonging to the Brahmin community, managed to provide the quota while Congress-NCP stalwarts belonging to the Maratha community couldn't would also work in BJP's favour, experts have observed.

Professor Nitin Birmal, a political analyst and the state-coordinator for Lokniti, told Hindustan Times that data from the 2014 and 2019 general elections shows that the community has voted increasingly in favour of the BJP-Sena alliance.

"The 2019 poll results show the community has backed the way the state government handled the reservation issue. The Fadnavis government has been quick on its feet and responsive. But, even then nearly 30 percent of the community vote went to the NCP. This support base of the NCP could now get even more eroded with this court verdict," Birmal told the newspaper.

The Opposition has been quick to hail the verdict but downplay the government's role. State Congress President Ashok Chavan said it was the Congress government that had initiated reservation for Marathas but "the issue could not pass high court's scrutiny" due to legal hurdles.

Vijay Wadettiwar, Leader of Opposition in Assembly, said the "real credit" must go to "young men of the community who had taken to streets seeking reservation".

Privately, however, Congress leaders in the state admitted that it will complicate matters for the party. "The verdict is going to boost BJP-Sena's campaign for the election, especially in rural regions. It will cut into the alliance's vote bank," a Maharashtra Congress leader said.