UP Elections Phase 7 | High-stakes battle in Purvanchal as SP gives BJP a tough fight

(Image tweeted by @ceoup)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is camping in Varanasi for three days to campaign for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s candidates in Varanasi and Purvanchal, which goes to the polls in the seventh and last phase of the assembly elections on March 7. Modi held a mega road show, prayed at the Kashi Vishwanath temple, mingled with voters, and also visited the famous Pappu chaiwala on March 4. Campaigning for the final phase closed on March 5.

Opposition parties see this move as a last ditch effort by the BJP to save its fortress in Uttar Pradesh. Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav claims that the fact that the Prime Minister has had to come out to save Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s government, signals that the BJP is on a sticky wicket in UP.

However, critics forget that Modi even camped here in the 2017 assembly elections, when it was more or less certain that the BJP would win the polls after the fifth phase of voting. By the fifth phase, the BJP’s election managers and workers would have conveyed this information to the leadership, yet Modi did not go slow on campaigning.

Being an MP from Varanasi, Modi is lending his support to his party’s MLAs, which is natural course of action for any MP. By being an active presence in the BJP’s campaign in UP, Modi will be criticised if the party performs poorly—yet that has not stopped him. That is a reflection of a true leader.

All parties have put their best foot forward in an election which now appears to be closer than earlier estimated. Yadav held a joint rally with Trinamool Congress chief and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, and also held a road show in Varanasi.

Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra held a road show, and visited the Kashi Vishwanath temple with her brother Rahul Gandhi. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati also held a rally in Varanasi claiming the BSP’s return to power in UP to keep intact her core Dalit vote.

Fifty-four seats across nine districts of Azamgarh, Mau, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Chandauli, Varanasi, Bhadohi, Mirzapur, and Sonbhadra vote in the last phase. The BJP along with the Apna Dal (S) had won 33 of these 54 seats in 2017. OP Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), which contested in alliance with the BJP in 2017 but has this time shifted allegiance to the SP, had won four seats. The SP won 11, and the BSP six seats in 2017.

The seventh phase had the lowest strike rate for the BJP with the party winning only 69 percent of the seats, against winning 82 percent of the contested seats in phases one to six.

The Muslim-Yadav population is around 26 percent, the Brahmin-Thakur 20 percent, the Schedule Caste 19 percent, and the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes including Kurmis, Patels, Mallahs, Rajbhars, Lodhs, form about 35 percent.

The region is a traditional stronghold of the SP and the BSP. The SP won 34 of these 54 seats here in 2012. The BSP won six of its 19 seats in 2017 from this region, where it recorded a vote share of 26 percent.

The SP is eyeing the non-Yadav OBC vote bank, which overwhelmingly backed the BJP (58 percent as per Axis My India post poll survey). The SP hopes that the Apna Dal faction led by Anupriya Patel’s mother, and the SBSP will help it make a significant dent.

The Kurmis and the Rajbhars account for 10-12 percent of the population in UP. To negate the impact of OP Rajbhar’s exit, the BJP has roped in Sanjay Nishad’s party. The Mallahs also account for around 4 percent of the population in UP. It has also created an alternative leadership within the Rajbhar community, and pitched Kalicharan Rajbhar against Om Prakash in the Zahoorabad seat.

The SP, the BSP, and the Congress are eyeing the Brahmin vote, which is somewhat disillusioned with the Thakurvaad under Adityanath’s dispensation. While the SP is attempting to make it a localised, seat-by-seat election, the BJP is contesting presidential-style with focus on the ‘double engine’ government at the state and Centre.

The BJP hopes that the beneficiaries of various government schemes cutting across caste and religious lines, and the female voters would back it to the hilt.

The SP is raking up fear among the backward and the Dalits that the BJP is planning to end reservation. It remains to be seen whether the non-Yadav OBC votes for the Yadav scion.

Not only the BJP, the SP also needs to make a good dent in the BSP’s core vote bank to gain an edge in this last phase of polling.

On March 10 we will know if the last phase was the decider or not.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.