The 1.5-degree breach is a serious warning on the climate front

Indian researchers clearly establish that India is already witnessing the impacts of climate change caused due to excessive emissions of atmospheric carbon and other greenhouse gases.

Many parts of North India are experiencing an extended spell of cold weather. Yet January 2024 in Jammu and Kashmir was the warmest in the past four decades and snowfall was not reported from popular tourist destinations for most of the December-January season. Dry weather significantly delayed snowfall in Auli, Mussoorie and other towns in Uttarakhand as well.

The trend is global. January 2024 has emerged as the hottest January on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. For the first time, the global mean temperature for 12 months has exceeded 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial levels. It is a significant landmark since this was the level the rise above which could witness spiralling impacts of climate change. The new high comes on top of 2023 having been ranked as the hottest year globally since 1850. In India, 2023 was the second warmest year since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Temperature, rainfall, snowfall and other weather events are a result of dynamic processes and their occurrence at the local level is dictated by a multitude of local, regional and global meteorological factors. Climate scientists study such events on a long-term scale to arrive at certain patterns and tell us if they are related to anthropogenic (man-made) climate change. Numerous studies and reports published by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have assessed evidence and have pointed to the connection between changing weather patterns globally with climate change.

New Evidence 

Some recent studies by Indian researchers clearly establish that India is already witnessing the impacts of climate change caused due to excessive emissions of atmospheric carbon and other greenhouse gases. Such impacts are visible in the form of droughts, floods and extreme rainfall events.

A new study by climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has found that extreme rainfall events have quadrupled over western Meghalaya and coastal Southeast Bangladesh during the 1950-2021 period. Extreme rainfall occurs when warm Bay of Bengal sea-surface temperature intensifies the transport of lower tropospheric moisture and the flux through the low-level jets inland, where mountain-forced moisture converges. Such rainfall events result in flash floods inundating vast tracts of land and displacing millions of people. Using climate change modelling, the study has projected that the trend of one-day extreme rainfall events will intensify in the future (2050-2079) owing to climate change.

Vimal Mishra of the Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, has been studying long-term trends of the occurrence of droughts and floods. He has concluded that India has seen a rise in the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts over the recent decades and that this trend is projected to further exacerbate due to climate change. Mishra’s climate lab has prepared the Drought Atlas of India for the period 1901-2020. It provides granular data about droughts during summer and winter monsoons as well as any calendar year and ‘water year.’ The drought monitor provides updated information on drought conditions in India. For instance, the map released on January 31, 2024, shows drought conditions in Leh, parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, West Bengal and some districts of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. Indian research groups are also focusing on other extreme weather events like cold waves, heat waves etc.

Converting Science Into Policy And Action

Even as climate diplomats at annual negotiation rounds struggle to agree on ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions, climate change is already manifesting itself in extreme weather events across the globe affecting vulnerable communities and regions. The frequency and intensity of such impacts are only going to increase. Vimal Mishra’s research has projected an increase in ‘widespread floods in Indian river basins under a warming climate.’ Climate change-linked extreme weather events are affecting livelihoods, food and agriculture systems, water resources, infrastructure, businesses and the national economy.

Halting or reversing the temperature rise through massive emission reduction appears to be a mirage that the global community is chasing with little success. Therefore, countries prone to extreme weather events need to take proactive action to adapt and minimise their impacts. This can be achieved through constant monitoring and evidence-based policy actions.

For instance, some Indian cities have prepared Heat Action Plans to cope with heat waves and reduce the death toll associated with them. The live drought map can be used for drought forecasting and advance action like crop planning and relief measures. Urban planning and infrastructure development need to provide for flooding risk and other climate threats. Climate-related research funding should go up and it should be linked with adaptation and action plans. The 1.5-degree rise landmark is another wake-up call for policymakers and politicians.

Dinesh C Sharma is a science journalist and author based in New Delhi. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.