President’s Rule in Manipur gives BJP a chance to retrieve the situation

BJP should realise that it’s skating on thin ice in blighted Manipur.

There is no light at the end of the tunnel in Manipur although the Parliament dutifully approved the imposition of President’s Rule besides giving a timely thumbs up to the budget of the northeastern state.

Since mid-February, President’s Rule has effectively transferred all the functions of the state government to the Centre and the function of the state legislature to Parliament. But what’s badly complicating matters for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah-led Bharatiya Janata Party dispensation, is the unbending demand by Kukis – mainly Christian hill tribals comprising 18 percent of the population – to carve out a “separate administration” or a Union Territory for them to exist peacefully with their dignity and honour intact.

Kukis are insisting on Manipur’s partition citing the casualties and damages, particularly the large scale destruction of churches, inflicted on them by BJP-backed Meiteis -- mainly Hindus living in the plains constituting a whopping 53 percent of the population -- since May 2023 when religo-ethnic violence erupted and descended into a civil war replete with horrific rapes and targeting of children with outnumbered Kukis invariably at the receiving end.

The minority Kukis reportedly account for two-thirds of the toll of 260 lives so far, which explains their loss of faith in the majority community and is clearly fuelling their demand for separation which is becoming louder for good reasons.

The Centre ran into a Kuki wall on March 8 when Manipur police and the central forces tried to carry out Shah’s March 2 order to enforce “free movement”. The objective was to enable Meiteis to enter the hill areas of the Kukis. It was undoubtedly an outright partisan exercise which did not seek to help Kukis to come to the Imphal valley but only to help Meiteis enter Kuki areas.

Anyway, the writing was on the wall from the very moment the Home Minister’s instructions to “take strict action against anyone attempting to create obstructions” on March 8 became public. The Kukis put up such a stiff resistance at Kangpokpi; a Kuki youth died in action and dozens of protestors and security forces were injured; that the much-hyped “free movement” operation had to be put on hold indefinitely, resulting in a big loss of face for the Centre which simply couldn’t have its way.

As things stand, it’s absolutely clear to everyone that Kukis won’t give an inch without a political solution, which effectively means carving out a territory for Kukis to forge their destiny. They are holding demonstration and taking out processions to press their partition demand holding aloft the tricolor, singing the national anthem and swearing by the Constitution at every step.

Importantly, their “freedom” movement, so far, has not been tainted by any allegation of foreign backing or funding – which is a big plus considering the tendency of inimical countries to fish in our northeastern waters.

What lies ahead is impossible to gauge at this stage because the post March 8 talks between the Ministry of Home Affairs team and Kuki leadership are deadlocked over the latter’s insistence on holding a plebiscite or referendum right away as a stepping stone to Union territory-hood which is their ultimate goal.

There is no doubt that a frantic search for the middle ground is underway but mum’s the word for the moment!

The other imponderable in the Manipur jigsaw puzzle is the Centre’s seriousness about recovering lethal looted weapons that Meitei and Kuki militias are meticulously hiding instead of turning them over to authorities.

By all accounts, the Meiteis’ arsenal of looted arms is much bigger than the Kukis’ pile. But the daredevilry of the two sides -- defying deadlines and extended deadlines to surrender the seized weapons -- is a big affront not only to the authority of Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla but the full might of the Centre itself.

It’s high time Bhalla -- a retired Union Home Secretary, no less -- reads the riot act and makes an example out of the biggest offenders whose identities are known to the Intelligence Bureau and National Investigation Agency. A crackdown on Meitei warlords especially would send the much-needed message that the Centre has no favourites and nobody will be spared.

Above everything, BJP should realise that it’s skating on thin ice in blighted Manipur. The resounding victory of the Congress Party last year in both Lok Sabha seats revealed how the BJP is scraping the bottom of the barrel in the state it ruled since 2017. If legislative assembly elections were to be held today, the Congress Party would surely form the government. In that sense, President’s Rule has given the BJP a last chance to get its act together before the 2027 assembly elections when Manipuris would next pronounce their verdict.