Pakistan Elections: Will the delay in counting pave the way for Army’s favourites?

A more tumultuous outcome but low-probability would be an outright PTI victory that would be hugely embarrassing for General Munir and Rawalpindi.

While final results are still awaited to decide which party or coalition  will form the government in Islamabad  after a bitterly contested and controversial election day (February 8), where  internet services were  suspended and former Prime Minister and cricketer Imran Khan incarcerated in prison – the cricket metaphor remains abiding in the politics of Pakistan.

In July 2018 when Imran Khan led the fledgling PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) to victory, the local quip was that as in the past, the Pakistani army with General Qamar Bajwa at the helm had ‘fixed the match’ to enable the final outcome. Imran Khan was the charismatic candidate favoured  by the army GHQ  in Rawalpindi  and it was amply evident that then PM  Nawaz Sharif  (2013 – 17 ) had to make way for the Captain selected by the  ‘fauj.’ But the investment in Imran Khan soon turned sour  for the army and  he was forced out of office in 2022 paving the way for the current election.

Now in a familiar pattern, it appears that Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir and the corps commanders  have decided to enable  the return of Nawaz Sharif to the pitch and his victory – if the grapevine is to be believed. The 2024 election has pitted the older parties – the Nawaz Sharif-led PML(N) and the Bilalawal Bhutto Zardari-led  PPP against the still popular PTI and the goal is to see which of these parties, or a coalition will cross  the figure of 133 to be declared the winner. (The Pakistan National Assembly has 266 elected seats and the first-past-the-post principle determines the winner.)

Early trends suggest that despite the PTI being deprived of its symbol (a cricket bat) and senior leaders arrested – the party candidates who contested as independents are doing better than expected. But as in cricket – it is not over till the last ball is bowled and the umpires declare the result – and hence all eyes will be on how this ‘selection’ is made by the men in khaki.

That the army is the final arbiter of power is a structural element of  Pakistani politics and ironically, a young Nawaz Sharif was an early recipient of this patronage when he became prime minister for the first time in 1990 – ousting arch-rival Benazir Bhutto who had fallen foul of the ‘fauj.’ Both these leaders were in and out of power depending on army  ‘selection’  and this illustrated the distortion of the political process in Pakistan and the institutional primacy that the army had accorded unto itself.

Pakistan’s army chiefs have usurped political power in the past and the tenures of Generals Ayub Khan (1958–69),  Yahya Khan (1969–71) that resulted in the birth of Bangladesh, Zia-ul-Haq (1978-88) and Pervez Musharraf (2001-08) allowed the men in uniform to project themselves as saviours of both Pakistan and the Islamic faith. This narrative was largely accepted by an earlier generation till Imran Khan as Prime Minister challenged the military and cast aspersions on its integrity and professionalism – which was blasphemous.

But the stain remained and this is a central feature of the current dynamic in Pakistan – that the Imran Khan-led PTI which has considerable support among GenNext in Pakistan, no longer sees the army as the shining knight in armour or the panacea to redress the many challenges the nation faces.

The current economic and  fiscal situation in Pakistan is parlous and one example is stark. In July 2018, the US dollar was pegged at Rs 128 and now it is hovering at Rs 279 and Islamabad has had to scramble for emergency funding from its donors to stay solvent till a new government takes office.

Hence the army in a prudent move will stay in the background and hand over this crown of thorns to a civilian leader – and the received wisdom is that the PML(N) led by former PM Nawaz Sharif will emerge the winner. If the numbers do not stack up for the PML(N) – Plan B would be for a PML(N) and PPP coalition and would have its own internal governance tensions.

A more tumultuous outcome but low-probability would be an outright PTI victory that would be hugely embarrassing for General Munir and Rawalpindi. At the time of writing this comment, the PTI is ahead with 6 seats while the other two parties have 4 each. But watch this space – the last ball is yet to be bowled!

Commodore C Uday Bhaskar (Retd.) is Director, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.