India's $4 Trillion Moment: The rise of a resilient and reformist India

India under PM Modi has demonstrated what focused leadership, strategic vision, and effective execution can achieve.

By Pradeep Bhandari

India today stands at the cusp of being the fourth-largest economy in the world, with IMF projecting that its GDP in FY26 will surpass that of Japan. The sheer scale of this achievement underlines the determination, vision, and intent of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. When PM Modi took office in 2014, India was the eleventh-largest economy. Climbing from the eleventh to the fourth position in just ten years is not just an economic leap; it is a testament to the transformational leadership and governance reforms that have redefined India’s growth trajectory.

Under the previous UPA regime, India was labelled as part of the "Fragile Five" economies. Investor confidence was shaken, macroeconomic indicators were deteriorating, and governance was marred by indecision and policy paralysis. Capital expenditure (capex), a critical driver of long-term growth, was severely neglected. The share of capex in total expenditure fell sharply from 23% in 2003-04 to an average of just 12% between 2005 and 2014. This drop reflected the Congress-led government’s inability to prioritise infrastructure and growth. The opportunity cost of that neglect was enormous.

Government expenditure prioritises capex

In sharp contrast, the Modi government brought in a new era of governance focused on infrastructure development, fiscal discipline, and efficient public service delivery. Capex under the Modi government rose significantly, reaching over 21% of total expenditure in FY2023-24. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman rightly pointed out that the BJP government spent 3.7 times more on infrastructure than its predecessor. A report by the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy noted that capital expenditure has a multiplier effect of 4.8 times on the economy, highlighting the long-term gains of such investments.

The results of this investment-driven approach are visible across sectors. Road connectivity has improved significantly, boosting local businesses and attracting investments by reducing logistics costs. According to official estimates, India is now saving Rs 2.4 to 4.8 trillion annually in logistics due to improved roads and transport infrastructure. In urban mobility, the transformation is even more striking. Before 2014, just about 229 km of metro network was operational. As of 2025, India has developed a metro network covering over 1,000 km, spread across 23 cities and 11 states, making it the third-largest operational metro network globally after China and the United States.

India's port efficiency has also witnessed a quantum leap. The average turnaround time at major ports has reduced from 93.59 hours in 2013-14 to just 48.06 hours in 2023-24, marking a 48.65% improvement. This efficiency gain has facilitated higher trade volumes and reduced export-related delays. At the same time, India’s foreign exchange reserves have surged. From $292 billion in March 2013 and only $304.2 billion in March 2014, reserves have now touched $690.61 billion as of 9 May 2025 - the highest in seven months, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India.

Scale and speed of financial inclusion

Financial inclusion has been another pillar of this growth story. The Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), launched in 2014, has transformed access to banking services. As of March 7, 2025, over 54.57 crore Jan Dhan accounts have been opened. Of these, 30.37 crore accounts, or 55.7%, are held by women, and 36.63 crore accounts are in rural and semi-urban areas. This has empowered millions with access to formal finance, facilitated direct benefit transfers, and brought transparency in welfare schemes.

India has also emerged as the third-largest startup ecosystem in the world. Under the UPA, India lacked any significant startup momentum. But under PM Modi, with initiatives like Startup India, regulatory easing, and investment in digital infrastructure, India has become a hotbed for innovation and entrepreneurship. From agritech to AI, thousands of startups are now reshaping India’s economic landscape.

IMF’s confidence in India’s growth rate

The IMF projects that India will be the fastest-growing major economy over the next two years. The economy is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026, outperforming global and regional peers, as per the World Economic Outlook report. This confidence in India’s growth potential is rooted in a decade of solid macroeconomic fundamentals, institutional reforms, and a pro-investment environment.

It is worth remembering that while presenting the Interim Budget for 2014-15, then Finance Minister P. Chidambaram had said that “there is a well-argued view” that India, in terms of nominal GDP, would become the third-largest economy in the world in three decades. Today, just eleven years later, India is already fourth, and projections suggest that we could become third within the next three years. This is not just economic progress; it is accelerated national transformation.

From a fragile economy to a formidable one, India under PM Modi has demonstrated what focused leadership, strategic vision, and effective execution can achieve. The contrast with the UPA years is stark. While the Congress-led government squandered a decade of opportunity, the Modi government has built the foundation for India to emerge as a global economic leader in the decades to come. The numbers speak for themselves - and they narrate a story of a new, confident, and self-reliant India that has left behind the shadows of the past.

(Pradeep Bhandari is National Spokesperson, Bharatiya Janata Party.)

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.