In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s fortress seems impregnable

Mamata’s biggest shield against any BJP onslaught is the Muslims of West Bengal comprising 27 percent of the population – a huge chunk demographically and electorally

As the Bharatiya Janata Party has at long last succeeded in evicting Arvind Kejriwal from power, it’s but natural that a lot of people are hopeful or worried; depending on their ideological bent; that come 2026 and the mighty BJP will also send Mamata Banerjee packing.

Speculation is rife particularly because of the commonalities between the Aam Aadmi Party and the Trinamool Congress at least on the surface: both the regional outfits are scarred by corruption charges and targeted by central agencies; they swear by populism and freebies -- and are the fiefdoms of Kejriwal and Banerjee, respectively.

But, realistically speaking, there is no chance of a Delhi-type debacle in West Bengal. The Trinamool Congress and its well-wishers can breathe easy and sleep peacefully. The BJP is in no position to pull down Banerjee a la Kejriwal in the state legislative assembly elections next year. Fortunately or unfortunately, West Bengal -- along with Kerala and Tamil Nadu -- is destined to remain an impregnable fortress for the mighty BJP in the foreseeable future.

What a hard nut to crack West Bengal is even for the BJP-Rashtriya SwayamSevak Sangh juggernaut is evident from the RSS Sarsangchalak Mohan Bhagwat – the country’s second most powerful man after Prime Minister Narendra Modi -- currently camping for 10 days at a stretch in Mamata land to overcome all sorts of challenges and give the Sangha Parivar’s sagging fortunes a much-needed boost before the 2026 assembly polls.

Any RSS watcher will certify that 10 days is an inordinately long period for the RSS chief to devote to a single state as his time and energy are obviously very precious and therefore judiciously spent on trouble shooting.

Mamata’s biggest shield against any BJP onslaught is the Muslims of West Bengal comprising 27 percent of the population – a huge chunk demographically and electorally. Their all-out backing for the Trinamool Congress is now a given. Muslims have reposed their unquestioning faith in Banerjee for reasons which are too well known to bear repetition; their en masse vote gives her a head start in any election and things will be no different in 2026.

As things stand, let alone the BJP, the vast majority of West Bengal Muslims wouldn’t vote even for the Communist Party of India (Marist) or the Congress Party despite their secular and inclusive character. They trust none but the Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress making it electorally invincible.

With the Muslim vote in the bag, all that the Trinamool Congress needs is a helping of the anti-left vote which first propelled it to power but is now also drawn to the BJP to an extent, to romp home. Frankly, Banerjee must thank her stars for the constellation of factors making her unassailable.

The humungous Muslim vote is the biggest hurdle in the BJP’s repeated bids to conquer West Bengal tossing Banerjee aside. It’s virtually a firewall insulating the Trinamool Congress however combustible and incendiary the poll scenario gets. The BJP can’t win over Muslims and it can’t sidestep them. They stand between Banerjee and the BJP like a protective cordon which the BJP can’t breach to get to Banerjee – it’s that simple, thank you.

There are several other things going for Banerjee fortifying her position at the state and national level. She was a central minister twice and is chief minister for a third straight term. Kejriwal is a rookie in comparison. There is no comparison between their stature and place in the pecking order of national politics. While AAP has merely three Lok Sabha and 10 Rajya Sabha MPs, the Trinamool Congress has as many as 29 lawmakers in the lower house and 13 in the upper house.

The total number of MPs owing allegiance to Banerjee is 42 – a formidable figure by any yardstick. But what is not so well known is that she has many more stitches on her skull and injury marks than the number of MPs she commands, underlining her caliber and history as a fighter against all odds. In a manner of speaking, she was forged in a kiln. How she took on the communists and won is the stuff of legend. Kejriwal has faced no such adversities, which underlines the gulf of difference between the West Bengal CM and Delhi ex-CM and makes the BJP’s cherished goal of bringing down the former well-nigh impossible.

In rare remarks after Kejriwal’s fall, Nobel laureate Amartya Sen attributed AAP’s defeat to the lack of unity among anti-Hindutva forces. But the 91 year old has ruled out the possibility of a repetition of Delhi syndrome in West Bengal because “though secular parties like the Trinamool Congress, the CPI(M) and Congress Party have gone separate ways, there is something of a social consensus on the importance of secularism, and also for education and healthcare for all, and even for social justice…”

All these are big priorities for Banerjee – Bengal’s tallest leader that most people look up to. And that’s exactly why the Trinamool Congress can’t lose an election. Banerjee’s prospects are forever bright as she has the system sewn up tight.