How serious is China’s threat of reviving separatist movements in the North-East?

Image: AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

A recent Global Times article has issued a threat that China would support the separatist outfits in the Northeast and ‘resurrection’ of Sikkim if India continued to play up the Taiwan card. After the 1980s, Beijing had seldom been so brazen about assisting the rebel groups in the region which still continue to campaign for ‘independence’. Unlike Pakistan’s support to rebel groups on India’s western side, Beijing’s linkages with such outfits on the eastern frontier had always been covert and selective.

So how serious is China’s threat? A section of government officials dismiss the article as ‘typical Chinese posturing’ to wean away New Delhi from its growing bonhomie with Taiwan. Yet, there are others who feel that some plans might have been firmed up as a tit-for-tat against India’s policies.

Beijing cannot be unaware about the ground reality in the Northeast and the fact that militant groups have been on the back foot for the past many years. The base in Myanmar has also suffered a jolt after the camps were dismantled by Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) last year, although camps of the Manipuri outfits still exist in the southern zone of Myanmar’s Sagaing Division. Some of these groups have also invested in businesses in different cities in Myanmar. That said, the resurgence of rebel activity and proliferation of camps in Myanmar is extremely doubtful.

It is a known fact that ULFA chief of staff Paresh Baruah has been exploring options to revive militancy in the Northeast although it may not be an easy task in the current circumstances. The situation could take a different turn only if the pro-Pakistan Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) were to win elections in Bangladesh in 2024, which could provide an impetus to the fundamentalist groups operating there.

There are reports that some of these groups have been putting in efforts to shore up their network in Assam among some sections of Bengal origin Muslims in certain areas. Modules have been busted, which indicate the attempts being made by these groups to establish a presence in the state. The possibility of Baruah joining hands with them and taking advantage of their networks cannot be ruled out.

In an interview to this author in 2011, Baruah was highly optimistic about forming a government-in-exile. The plan was to include all the separatist outfits from the Northeast in a coalition as per instructions by Chinese security agencies. This was also revealed by UNLF chief Sanayaima (of Manipur) during interrogation after Bangladesh handed him over to India in 2010.

Although the Manipuri outfits continued to cooperate with each other in Myanmar and elsewhere, Baruah was unable to rope them in the coalition, the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWSEA). Baruah still hopes to form the government-in-exile with Beijing’s support.

The Global Times article mentioned above admits that these groups have approached China for assistance, which has not yet been given due to the ‘friendship’ between China and India. Also interesting are the numerous reports that for the past several years ULFA functionaries have been frequenting countries bordering China. There is still no definite answer explaining these episodes but they could not have happened without the knowledge of the Chinese government.

A couple of more aspects in the article also make for an interesting reading. It mentions that the separatist groups from the Northeast have established a ‘close connection’ with the ‘armed forces’ in northern Myanmar. ‘Armed forces’ here do not imply the Myanmar military, but rebel groups sponsored by China, such as the United Wa State Army.

Then, there is also mention of the Assam United Democratic Front — described as a group that wishes to secure independence from India. There is no such organisation and some officials have dismissed it as a ‘silly mistake’. It might have also been done deliberately to sow the seeds of suspicion towards the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), led by perfume baron Maulana Badruddin Ajmal. The AIUDF’s support base is among the Bengal origin Muslims in Assam that include a section of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

Rajeev Bhattacharyya is a Guwahati-based senior journalist. Views are personal.