BJP's challenges in Maharashtra; the road to assembly elections

BJP has a better option in Maharashtra’s politically fractured landscape. Will the party want to use it?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is currently facing multiple challenges in Maharashtra. The party's decision to include Ajit Pawar in the Mahayuti alliance has drawn criticism both internally and externally, while the ongoing Maratha agitation adds another layer of difficulty. The morale of party workers has taken a hit, especially after a disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

In contrast, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is confident of replicating its success in the Vidhan Sabha, with an internal survey suggesting they could win over 160 of the 288 seats in the upcoming assembly elections.

BJP's path to returning to power in this backdrop seems challenging. Moreover, the party hasn’t made it easy for itself by reaffirming Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis as its captain for the Vidhan Sabha elections.

Broken relations

Fadnavis also remains a key target for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Thackeray has openly declared that either he or Fadnavis will survive in Maharashtra politics. The animosity between Thackeray and Fadnavis dates back to before 2019 but worsened after the election results when Thackeray demanded the Chief Minister's post for half the term.

Manoj Jarange Patil, the leader of the Maratha quota agitation, has been primarily targeting Fadnavis in his speeches, rather than other Mahayuti leaders like Eknath Shinde or Ajit Pawar. The situation escalated in 2023 when a police lathi charge on Maratha activists in Jalna, during an attempt to end Jarange's fast, made Fadnavis the focal point of Jarange's ire, given that he holds the Home portfolio.

Additionally, Fadnavis has not given up on his ambition to become chief minister again, which could complicate any potential leadership change if post-election negotiations are needed to stitch together a coalition government.

An alternative

One potential solution for the BJP to regain its footing in Maharasthra could be to bring Nitin Gadkari back into state politics and position him as the chief ministerial candidate. This move would allow Devendra Fadnavis to shift to national politics, at least temporarily. Gadkari could act as the party's troubleshooter, addressing multiple issues at once.

Gadkari's leadership could help diffuse the Maratha agitation, which has already proved costly for the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, leading to the defeat of several candidates, including Pankaja Munde.  Jarange Patil has vowed to defeat the BJP again in the upcoming elections. A leadership change within the BJP could potentially mitigate the discontent.

Gadkari maintains a cordial relationship with both Pawar and Thackeray. Before the Lok Sabha elections, when Gadkari's name was absent from the first list of candidates, Saamna, the Shiv Sena mouthpiece, published editorials in his favor, accusing Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah of sidelining him.

Bal Thackeray, also had a favorable view of Gadkari, even affectionately nicknaming him “Pulkari.” Gadkari's achievements, such as building 55 flyovers in Mumbai as Maharashtra’s Public Works Department Minister, have earned him respect across party lines. Uddhav Thackeray even once suggested that Gadkari could contest elections after resigning from the BJP, with assurances of opposition support for his victory.

Sharad Pawar has also publicly praised Gadkari, calling him his favourite minister in the Modi cabinet last year. If the BJP finds itself needing support from parties outside the Mahayuti to install a chief minister, Gadkari’s positive relationships with Pawar and Thackeray could prove invaluable.

Gadkari's negotiation skills are well-known, as demonstrated in the 2017 Goa assembly elections. Despite the Congress emerging as the single largest party, Gadkari successfully negotiated with smaller parties and independents to form a BJP government, showing his adeptness at Machiavellian politics as well.

Not free of controversies

While Gadkari has faced controversies, particularly concerning investments in his Purti Group, his tenure as Union Minister of Road Transport and Highways has been widely praised. Since taking on the role in 2014, Gadkari has been recognised as one of the most competent ministers in the Modi government. The BJP could leverage Gadkari's image by projecting him as the party's CM face.

However, despite Gadkari's potential to turn the tide in Maharashtra, questions remain about whether he would be willing to return to state politics, having distanced himself from Maharashtra's affairs since becoming BJP president in 2009.

BJP has a better option in Maharashtra’s politically fractured landscape. Will the party want to use it? Also, will Fadnavis and Gadkari play ball?