OPINION | Ayatollah Khamenei is dead which will prolong the conflict

The death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was the all-powerful leader of his country since 1989, was confirmed by Iranian state media on Sunday (March 1) following the joint US-Israeli airstrikes on his Tehran compound on Saturday (February 28).

There has been considerable speculation since 2025 about the implications of a post-Khamenei Iran and the manner in which he met his end – ‘Death by America’ has conferred the mantle of high martyrdom on the slain leader.

It may be recalled that ‘Death to America’ was a slogan made popular during the 1979 Iranian Revolution and this inflexible opposition to the US and Israel has been an abiding feature of Iranian politics and ideological posturing.

Shi’a Islam’s influence on Iranian regime’s outlook

Ayatollah Khamenei often referred to the US as the ‘Great Satan’ and the fact that he met his end at the hands of the arch-enemy has profound theological implications within Shi'a Islam, particularly among adherents of Twelver Shi'ism, the dominant branch of the Shia community in Iran.

Martyrdom (shahadat) is a central tenet of their faith, drawing from historical narratives like the Battle of Karbala, where Imam Hussein, grandson of Prophet Muhammad was killed in 680 CE while resisting his oppressors.

This event symbolizes sacrifice, resistance, and divine justice, shaping Shia identity around themes of ‘mazloumiat’ (oppression) and ‘intiqam’ (revenge or justice).  Consequently, Khamenei's death, framed as martyrdom by Iranian state media and supporters, resonates as a modern reflection of these archetypes, potentially unifying the faithful while complicating regime dynamics.

Sacrifice, not defeat

Khamenei's killing by foreign powers fits the Karbala paradigm: an oppressed leader slain by ‘infidel’ forces (U.S. and Israel) and recast in a glorified manner as sacred sacrifice rather than shameful defeat. Significantly, despite looming danger, the Ayatollah neither fled Iran, nor his residence.

This emotive interpretation elevates Khamenei   from a much despised political figure to a mythic symbol, potentially sanctifying his legacy and unifying disparate factions.

Ideological framework will influence Iran’s next step

This has deep rooted implications about what may unfold in the near future.  Tehran has declared 40 days of mourning, invoking Hussein's 40-day religious observance, framing the Khamenei death as ‘shahadat’ to mobilise grief into resistance against the Great Satan.

This cloak of martyrdom could create a ‘blood debt’ legacy, overriding internal dissent and fostering an uneasy but sustained truce among rival Iranian factions against external threats.

The immediate military implications could include an escalation of the conflict, with potentially adverse consequences for regional stability and global energy security.

Iran is retaliating but leadership loss cannot be plugged overnight

Iran has launched fresh strikes on American and Israeli targets, with reports of explosions in Dubai, Doha and some parts of Israel.

The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) has warned of "devastating" retaliation and pre-delegated missile launch authority indicates that strikes could continue despite the decapitation of senior leadership and the ensuing voids.

The disarray in the top military leadership will take time to stabilise and will be linked to the final politico-religious choice, about who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

Current indications are that the hardliners who owe their allegiance to the theological fervour of the 1979 Revolution will be the dominant factor and the IRGC will play a critical role in defining Iran’s post-Khamenei orientation.

Oil market will be singed for now

The most significant impact is likely to be the global oil market and here the   Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman which is a critical chokepoint for global energy flows comes into focus.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council holds the authority to formally close the Hormuz, but the current situation marked by threats, military actions, and voluntary halts by shipping companies has achieved a similar effect.

While there has been no official declaration of closure, social media reports also confirm widespread perceptions of Hormuz closure, with users citing oil tanker fires and halted trade.

The impact of such a closure on global oil/ LNG prices and related stability will be considerable. A de facto shutdown of the Hormuz poses a severe threat, given that it handles approximately 21 million barrels per day- about 20% of the world's oil supply and a third of seaborne oil exports.

Major exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait are Hormuz dependent and in like fashion, the three major Asian economies – China, India and Japan are highly dependent on these SLOC (sea lines of communication) for their oil imports. Extended closure will have short-term energy shocks and longer-term risks, potentially echoing the 1970s oil crisis.

India’s stake in de-escalation

For India there are many strands that will be impacted by the Khamenei death. Energy and maritime security apart, the safety of the Indian diaspora in West Asia will be a major priority for the Modi government.

Regime change in Iran is the top US priority and hence the unilateral military action to assassinate the Supreme Leader. Devoid of any legal sanction and morally indefensible– this is an act of brazen impunity. The law of the jungle prevails and the weak must suffer and die when the strongest so decree.

The global community has been relatively muted over the joint US-Israel military action to kill Ayatollah Khamenei and only Russia has denounced the US   for “a pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent U.N. member state.”

Such reticence and hewing to the Trump sails is bleak augury. The conjecture that follows the Khamenei killing is scary: no global leader is safe from the imperious American eagle.

(Commodore C Uday Bhaskar (Retd.) is Director, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi.)

Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.