America’s messy Afghan withdrawal has left the region awash with arms

These arms can enhance lethality in operations, however they may not be necessarily integral to the strategic objectives or capabilities of these groups. (Source: US-DOD/Wikipedia)

By Aishwaria Sonavane 

When the US hastily withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021, it ceded the country to the Taliban and left behind an arsenal estimated to be worth $7 billion in military hardware, as confirmed by the US Department of Defense in 2022. The cache of weapons reportedly included equipment such as 78 aircraft, 40,000 military vehicles, munitions, and communication systems. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) also reported that the Taliban took control of approximately 650,000 weapons, which included 350,000 M4 and M16 rifles, 65,000 machine guns, 25,000 grenade launchers, 2,500 mortars and howitzers. While the immediate concern was the empowerment of the Taliban, the spillover effects are visible in Pakistan and, to a certain extent, in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

Journey of Abandoned Arms 

American-made weapons, ranging from M4 carbines to advanced night-vision devices, have reportedly surfaced in the militancy-ridden regions of Pakistan’s Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, as well as in arms bazaars that function as black markets for weapons. These arms bazaars are informal, largely illegal trade networks operating outside state oversight, particularly prevalent in border regions adjoining Afghanistan. These markets that have historically been hubs for the production of replica firearms have further evolved into a key node for the redistribution of looted or abandoned equipment, including weapons left by NATO forces.

These markets are typically operated by illicit traders, insurgent-linked middlemen, and criminal syndicates. Through these networks, US-origin weapons have purportedly reached armed groups linked to the Taliban such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as well as Baloch separatist outfits like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).

While precise quantities of these arms remain difficult to verify, the operational impact is increasingly evident. The current trajectory of violence in Pakistan can be attributed partly to militant groups’ access to sophisticated weapons, and partly to the continued gaps in state control in tribal regions. In recent years, police forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa reported that TTP fighters had outgunned them using thermal optics, rifle-mounted infrared lasers, and night-vision devices, which was once used by NATO and Afghan forces against insurgents in Afghanistan. This shift in capabilities has enhanced operational efficiency for anti-Pakistan militants, making nighttime ambushes harder to prevent.

Spillover in J&K

While the early implications of the abandoned US military stockpiles in Afghanistan largely played out in Pakistan, marginal signs of their spillover into J&K emerged in 2022. Although American-made weapons, including M4 carbines, were recovered in Pulwama in isolated instances as early as 2017 and 2018, their growing frequency in recent years highlights the continuing regional fallout of US policy decisions in Afghanistan. Between 2022 and 2024, a series of recoveries, particularly across Jammu’s Doda-Kishtwar-Kathua-Udhampur belt, some featuring night-vision devices, suggests a potential cross-border influx of advanced gear. Most recently, the armed forces recovered a M4 carbine assault rifle following an encounter with militants in Kishtwar District in Jammu on April 14. The hilly terrain of the Union Territory continues to remain a focal point for militant activities as insurgents have shifted from urban warfare in the heavily militarized districts of Kashmir in recent years.

The reported use of an M4 carbine and two AK-47 rifles in the attack on tourists in Pahalgam on April 22 remains indicative of the militants’ access to  both Western and Soviet-era military hardware. While security agencies have not confirmed a direct link to Afghan-origin stockpiles, the presence of an M4 carbine, a signature US-made equipment, raises red flags about the persistent trickle of advanced weaponry in the Valley’s militancy landscape. This reinforces concerns that even isolated access to such arms can enhance the lethality of attacks, especially in areas previously seen as lower-risk zones.

The M4 carbine, known for its lightweight, modularity, and compatibility with tactical attachments, notably marks a departure from the Kalashnikov variants and crude IEDs that were previously employed during the peak of insurgency in J&K in the 1990s.

At present, the access to such weapons indicates a degree of tactical advancement, particularly sticky bombs, which were widely used by insurgents in Afghanistan against NATO convoys. Nonetheless, the full impact of these weapons on militancy in J&K remains unclear. Groups like the People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF), which typically mounts ambush-style attacks on security convoys, and The Resistance Front (TRF), which focuses on targeted assassinations, operate in low-footprint, asymmetric warfare rather than sustained gunfights or prolonged armed engagements. In such contexts, the utility of high-end, NATO-grade weapons may be limited. These arms can enhance lethality in operations, however they may not be necessarily integral to the strategic objectives or capabilities of these groups. The pattern of recoveries suggests that these weapons may be infiltrating through small-scale, opportunistic smuggling networks across the border, rather than indicating a systematic upgrade in militant warfare tactics.

In early 2025, US President Donald Trump said, "Afghanistan is one of the biggest sellers of military equipment in the world. They’re selling the equipment that we left behind." While the proliferation of US-made arms has bolstered anti-Pakistan groups by fortifying their tactical capabilities, there is little evidence of overt operational support from the Taliban to Kashmir-based outfits, at present. The unprecedented yet pragmatic engagement between India and the Taliban in recent months appears to safeguard New Delhi’s immediate security interests in J&K. As the Taliban seeks international legitimacy and diplomatic recognition, especially amid continued friction with its traditional ally Pakistan, it is unlikely to risk alienating potential diplomatic regional nations like India.

(Aishwaria Sonavane is Research Analyst for Pakistan Studies, Indo-Pacific Programme, Takshashila Institution).

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.