What to look for in the GDP data for the April-June 2024 quarter
The most important thing to look out for is whether consumption growth has strengthened, which would not only indicate that the benefits of high GDP growth are trickling down, but also lead to a pick-up in corporate capex
Are Indian MFIs pushing too much credit to the borrower?
There are signs of overheating in some pockets of the industry, signalling build-up of potential stress. It is time for the industry to recall the lessons of the 2010 crisis and do a course correction
Indian Public Equity Markets: When in doubt, stay away
The Nifty-50 Index's 1-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is nearly 2 standard deviations higher than the historical average. Fund managers are better off today, opting for the 'joy of missing out' (JOMO) than succumbing to the 'fear of missing out' (FOMO) while investing
Ukraine War: Missile-use limits in Kyiv will mean more refugees in Germany
Germany and the US must allow Kyiv to use its most effective weapons against Russian long-range strikes
Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda rate shocks won’t get a pass forever
Governor Kazuo Ueda must take control of the narrative and show that the central bank has agency
Tortuous jurisprudence of bail when jails are packed with undertrials
Bail is not a privilege but a judicial process that is intrinsically intertwined with the fairness quotient of justice. What forms its basis is the presumption of innocence and hence right to live a life of dignity and liberty
What BHP’s commodity outlook says about copper, iron ore
The near term outlook appears to be soft as China’s economic recovery is not helping, although the longer-term outlook may remain bright due to the green transition
China’s debt divide is hurting its economy
Beijing’s refusal to surrender control to local government or take on more responsibility is key to the country’s challenges
E-commerce sector: A boon for small, made-in-India sellers
The shift for SME’s to online platforms is not just a significant driver of employment, it has also enabled small sellers to expand their business, increase market presence, and compete with big companies
Positive cash flows drive DLF towards gross zero debt
DLF’s unsold inventory dropped steadily from a high of 70 months in FY2017 to the present level of 16 months, a big relief to carrying cost and interest outflow
SME IPO frenzy is the norm rather than the exception
This enthusiasm for SME IPOs is not new. The chart below illustrates the SME IPO index's surge, rising from 24,184 at the start of 2023 to its current level of 113,056—a gain of over 4.5 times in less than 20 months
What the income tax data tell us about the premiumisation trend
If there was ever a shade of doubt left about the K-shaped recovery and the consequent premiumisation trend, the income tax data for FY2023 should clear it
Ensuring responsible AI in finance: A suggested regulatory framework for India
The current situation highlights the potential dangers and ethical issues that can arise from unregulated AI use, from decision-making biases to data privacy violations
Shifting goal posts on inflation targeting will be unfair to India's poor households
For the average Indian, inflation essentially means prices of most consumed food and vegetable items.
Phaseout of buyback tax will complicate matters for companies
The proposed changes to the buyback tax regime are poised to impact both resident and non-resident investors in India. Further, with companies being obligated to withhold tax on distributions made on account buy-back, the compliance burden of such companies would also increase significantly
Great Stagnation: When did it actually begin?
The economic malaise that afflicted the US from the 1970s onward may have taken root decades earlier — and its causes may be more health-related
Cracking cancer: A $1tn race for treatments is excluding some forms of the disease
GDP set for a fall in Q1 which may nudge RBI’s MPC to look at monetary easing
GDP growth in the April-June quarter likely decelerated to 6 percent, a six-quarter low. It’s most likely because of temporary factors and the second half of the fiscal will see a rebound to over 7 percent
Political dynasties in Southeast Asia are keeping it all in the family
From Indonesia to Thailand to the Philippines, ties bind powerful political dynasties together. That’s a threat to democracy
What politicians forget in the immigration balancing act
Working from purely economic or electoral motives neglects the key to integration
Skill or Luck: What is the true source of your investment success?
To assess your investment success evaluate your portfolio’s performance over time. Compare randomly picked portfolios and ask questions like the process used, consistency of profits, and risks taken
Unfazed by low prices, cement makers firm up capacity addition plans
Although prices have bounced back from lows it is unlikely that they will go so high that companies can clock huge profit margins
What really happens when the RSS top brass meets BJP during co-ordination meetings?
In the meeting scheduled at the end of this month, RSS will review the progress and practices of organisation inspired by it, including the BJP. The aim is to enhance co-ordination and effectiveness among all RSS-inspired groups, reflecting the ongoing collaborative relationship between the RSS and BJP
Decoding Economics: Who uses Generative AI and for what?
A World Bank research paper on Generative AI examines the adoption rates of various generative AI tools, identifies the factors influencing usage, and explores the impact of generative AI tools on traffic to other websites and on people’s online activities
Rules key to the success of personal data law
The implementation framework is important as the DPDP Act gives the Centre discretionary power on many issues
