Auto numbers, MPC meeting to dictate markets this week; Nifty may trade at 17,500–17,600: Experts
The trend is likely to remain strong as long as Nifty remains above 17200. On the higher end, the next important level is 17500–17600, where bears will be waiting, says Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
The benchmark indices posted healthy gains on the last day of the financial year 2022-23 and extended the winning streak to the second day, closing more than a percent higher on March 31. At close, the Sensex was up 1,031.43 points, or 1.78 percent, at 58,991.52, and the Nifty was up 279.10 points, or 1.63 percent, at 17,359.80.
2/6
Ajit Mishra, VP - Technical Research, Religare Broking | Markets are taking comfort from stability in the global markets and we expect the positive tone to continue. On the index front, the Nifty has finally ended a two-week consolidation phase (16,800-17,200) and it might take a breather around 17,400 before marching towards 17,600 levels. Amid all positivity, participants shouldn’t go overboard and maintain their focus on stock selection.
3/6
Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The Nifty is likely to test the zone of 17480 – 17500 where resistance in the form of the 200-day moving average and the upper end of the falling channel is placed. A key observation to note here is that on the monthly chart the Nifty has managed to close above the 20-Month moving average (17351) which is a positive sign. In terms of price pattern, it has formed a Doji pattern indicating a pause after falling for three consecutive months. During April, the Nifty is likely to witness a rebound with IT, Energy, Metals, Capital Goods and PSU banks leading from the front.
4/6
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | On Friday, bulls remained at the helm as the benchmark Nifty closed well above the crucial resistance level of 17,250. On the daily chart, the index has moved above the recent consolidation, suggesting a rise in optimism. The momentum oscillator RSI has entered a bullish crossover. The trend is likely to remain strong as long as it remains above 17200. On the higher end, the next important level is 17500–17600, where bears will be waiting.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Analyst, Kotak Securities | Technically, on daily charts the Nifty has made a higher bottom formation and on weekly charts it has formed a long bullish candle which is broadly positive. In addition, after a long time the index is trading above the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) level which too is indicating further uptrend from the current levels. For traders, 20-day SMA or 17,200 would act as a sacrosanct support zone, and above the same the index could rally till the 200-day SMA or 17,450 -17,550. However, below the 20-day SMA, uptrend would be vulnerable.
6/6
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | In FY24, we expect strong earnings growth of around 15% – largely because of improving margins as raw material prices cool-off. This would be further supported by demand revival that had moderated out since Q3FY23. Valuation too has come off substantially from 24x 1-year forward P/E in Oct’21 to 17x currently (v/s 20x long period average), offering moderate margin of safety. In the near term, focus will now remain on RBI’s policy meeting this week, where 25-bps rate hike is expected in line with the hikes done by major global central banks. Apart from this, markets will also react to monthly Auto sales number data that will be released over the weekend.
