Women voters may shape outcome in Bihar’s second phase: 17 of 29 women-leaning seats go to polls

Women voters may shape outcome in Bihar’s second phase: 17 of 29 women-leaning seats go to polls

Women voters are set to play a crucial role in the second phase of Bihar’s Assembly elections, with female voters’ share exceeding the state average in 17 of the 29 constituencies heading to the polls.

These women-leaning constituencies are in Seemanchal and Koshi, covering Araria, Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia, and Supaul, and extend into Mithilanchal (Madhubani) and further south into Ang Pradesh, around Bhagalpur and Banka. In many of these districts, the female share of voters crosses 48–49 percent, placing them in Bihar’s top cohort by women’s voter weight.

The Seemanchal region offers some of the sharpest contrasts. Kishanganj (49 percent), for instance, stands well above the state average. The area’s Muslim-majority composition, combined with a history of flood exposure and migration-linked vulnerabilities, has historically led to strong female voter mobilisation, often shaping margins in closely contested seats.

National parties in focus

Phase 2 is also critical for both the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). For the Congress, two of its strongholds—Kishanganj and Kasba— go to the polls in this round. The BJP will contest 14 of its 23 stronghold seats, defined as constituencies it has won in the last three consecutive state elections.

From a competitiveness standpoint, this phase encompasses 35 constituencies where the margin of victory was below 5 percent in 2020, and 18 seats where the margin was under 2 percent, making them potential swing zones.
AIMIM and smaller-party influence

The phase will also test the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which won all five of its seats in this region in the last assembly election, some by margins exceeding 25 percent, among the largest in the state.

The outcome will reveal whether Bihar’s rising female electorate, which has reshaped voting patterns in recent cycles, can once again tilt the balance.