Why Trump roils at ever-expanding India, Russia ties

India’s balancing act was on display earlier this year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia in July

Hours after announcing 25 per cent tariffs on imports from India, US President Donald Trump said he does not care about New Delhi's dealings with Moscow and that the two "can take their dead economies down together".

In his post on Truth Social, the US President also said that India would face a “penalty” in addition to the 25 per cent tariff because of its imports of Russian energy items and defence equipment.

In June this year, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said that past Indian policies, including defence purchases from Russia and participation in Brics, “rubbed the United States the wrong way".

India’s relationship with Russia was not born of hostility toward the West, but of historical necessity and geographic logic.

Beginning of India-Russia ties

India’s defence relationship with Russia dates back to the Cold War era when the Soviet Union became India’s primary arms supplier. Russia supported India at a time when the West (primarily the US and the UK) would openly arm Pakistan with sophisticated and advanced weapons while turning down India’s requests.

This cooperation strengthened India's defence capabilities and played a crucial role in various conflicts, including the 1962 Sino-Indian War and the 1971 Indo-Pak War.

On August 9, 1971, the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation was signed. Many experts say that this treaty was probably the most seminal foreign policy arrangement entered into by India in the 20th century.

Over the years, the defence cooperation between India and Russia deepened. In 2009, India and Russia renewed a Soviet-era agreement on nuclear cooperation. This renewal, signed during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Moscow, also included provisions for building new nuclear reactors in India.

Defence cooperation

Russia has been the largest supplier of weapons to India despite but its share declining in recent years. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) 2025 report, 36% of India’s total arms imports from 2020–2024 came from Russia — a drop from 55% in 2015–2019.

India has for long remained dependent on Russia for legacy systems such as MiGs, Sukhois, T-series tanks, and submarines. After the Pahalgam attack, the Indian Army received a fresh consignment of Russian Igla-S air defence missiles worth over Rs 250 crore.

In 2018, India had signed a $5 billion deal with Russia to buy five units of the S-400 air defence missile systems, despite a warning from the Trump administration that going ahead with the contract may invite US sanctions.

Following the successful deployment of BrahMos missiles during Operation Sindoor, India reportedly launched negotiations with Russia to jointly manufacture an advanced version of the missile system. India deployed the S-400 air defence during the recent offensive against Pakistan.

India has also emerged as the second-biggest supplier of restricted critical technologies to Russia.

Dependence on oil, energy

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India has also stepped up purchase of oil from the European country. More than a third of its overseas purchases of crude now comes from Russia. India’s Russian oil imports rose to an 11-month high in June. According to tanker data, Russian crude accounted for a massive 43.2 per cent of India’s total oil imports in June.

At a recent India-Russia Business Dialogue, six joint ventures were announced, spanning shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals.

India also recently indicated that it may not compromise when it comes to buying Russian oil. "India is a big oil consumer... We are a big oil importer because we don't have oil. Now, it is not like there is a political strategy to buy oil... There is an oil strategy to buy oil... There is a market strategy," External Affairs Minister Jaishankar said in August 2024.

New Delhi repeatedly defended its continuing purchase of Russian crude following the war in Ukraine, while the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil.

Bilateral trade between India and Russia touched a record high of $68.7 billion in the financial year 2024-25. This marks a nearly six-fold increase from the pre-pandemic level of $10.1 billion. According to the Embassy of India Moscow, Russia, India and Russia are now working towards a bilateral trade target of $100 billion by 2030.

India’s stand on Russia-Ukraine war

New Delhi has been pursuing a largely neutral stance regarding the war in Ukraine, something that has further irked Washington. India’s balancing act was on display earlier this year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia in July and made a trip to Ukraine the following month.

Speaking on the Lex Fridman podcast in March, PM Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin that "this is not the time for war" while advising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that battlefield victories will not lead to a lasting resolution.

Trump's use of secondary tariffs on India, the first such instance, over non-trade barriers reflect how US is now looking to use economic sanctions to build pressure on India. India's long-standing ties with Russia now appears to be taking a silent on toll on its relationship with US.