West Bengal Election 2026: TMC holds lead, BJP gains ground but faces challenges; a look at past performance insights

The special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls became a major flashpoint in West Bengal ahead of the 2026 Assembly polls

• TMC and BJP face off ahead of West Bengal Assembly polls 2026
• TMC leads in Assembly segments, BJP targets governance issues
• Electoral roll revision sparks controversy between TMC and BJP

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With the West Bengal Assembly polls just weeks away, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are locked in a series of confrontations, the most prominent being over the Election Commission of India’s special intensive revision (SIR) exercise.

Since the 2021 Assembly polls, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls have been the latest electoral benchmark for parties in the state. While the TMC continues to demonstrate its dominance, the BJP -- despite emerging as the main Opposition five years ago and expanding its presence across Bengal -- faces organisational hurdles and a steep challenge in trying to unseat the Mamata Banerjee-led government.

West Bengal Assembly polls 2026

West Bengal goes to the polls in April 2026 to elect 294 assembly members, with phase 1 on April 23 and phase 2 on April 29. Results will be announced on May 4.

The TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, has ruled the state since 2011, winning 184 seats then, 211 in 2016, and 215 in 2021, driven by welfare programs, minority consolidation, and Banerjee’s popularity. The BJP is the main challenger.

The elections are largely a TMC-BJP battle, with TMC targeting a fourth term and BJP campaigning on governance, unemployment, and anti-incumbency.

How TMC has fared since 2011?

The TMC’s grip on West Bengal Assembly politics has strengthened since 2011, growing its tally from 184 seats to 215 in 2021, comfortably above the 148-seat majority. The party stumbled in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, winning 22 of 42 seats to BJP’s 18, but recovered in 2024 with 29 seats versus BJP’s 12, though still short of its 34-seat haul in 2014.

At the Assembly segment level in 2024, the TMC showed clear dominance with leads in 192 segments, compared with BJP’s 90, Congress’s 11, and CPI(M)’s 1, according to an Indian Express report.

The vote share gap was narrower, with TMC at 45.8 per ecnt and BJP at 38.7 per cent. However, a divided Opposition, including the collapse of the Congress-Left alliance and new parties, including that of former TMC leader Humayun Kabir, could split minority votes and affect the 2026 verdict.

The TMC, however, can take confidence from its strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Indian Express report shows that at the Assembly segment level, TMC led in 70 segments with a vote share above 50 per cent, compared with BJP’s 36 and Congress’s 1.

Among the 89 closely contested segments -- where the winning margin was under 10,000 votes -- the TMC led in 50, BJP in 34, Congress in 4, and CPI(M) in 1. Both TMC and BJP will now focus on swaying these low-margin segments to their advantage in the upcoming Assembly elections.

The special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls became a major flashpoint in West Bengal ahead of the 2026 Assembly polls. The TMC accused it of targeting Bengali-speaking and minority voters to hurt its strongholds, while the BJP defended the exercise as necessary to remove ineligible voters and ensure fair elections.

West Bengal has a total of 6,45,61,152 electors as per the Election Commission of India, including 6,44,52,609 general electors and 1,08,543 service voters. The state has 5,23,229 young electors aged 18-19 years. The electoral rolls also list 4,16,089 electors marked as Persons with Disabilities (PwD), 1,152 electors identified as third gender, and 3,78,979 senior citizens aged 85 and above.