‘There is no vacancy’: Why Siddaramaiah may emerge unscathed in Karnataka’s game of thrones

Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah says he would remain in power for five more years

Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on Thursday said there was "no vacancy" for the CM's post as he was very much in the chair, dismissing any possibility of a leadership change in the state.

"Is there any vacancy for chief ministership? I am very much here before you. I am the chief minister of Karnataka. That is what DK Shivakumar has said, and I am also saying it... There is no vacancy," PTI quoted Siddaramaiah as saying.

The CM is currently in Delhi and is expected to meet the top leadership of the Congress, including party chief Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi. The Lok Sabha LoP is also expected to parallelly meet deputy CM DK Shivakumar who is also in Delhi. He is reported to have already met AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra at her residence on Wednesday.

While both leaders as well as the AICC maintain that their Delhi visit is related to state projects, the timing of the visit and Shivakumar’s upcoming meeting with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi have raised eyebrows following calls by some Karnataka MLAs about a possible leadership change in Bengaluru.

The central leadership then sent senior leader Randeep Surjewala to broker truce between the two Karnataka leaders. While Siddaramaiah has been insisting that he will serve his full term, Shivakumar said “he had no option” but to stand by the CM.

Why the buzz over leadership change?

The two top Karnataka Congress leaders have been caught in a power tussle in the wake of the party’s return to power after defeating the BJP in the May 2023 Assembly polls. There were reports that a “power-sharing” agreement was reached between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. The agreement purportedly assured the CM berth for the two for a period of two and a half years each.

However, the Congress leadership dismissed these reports, maintaining that the discretion to appoint or change the CM remained with it.

Several Congress MLAs have recently voiced dissatisfaction over the state government’s functioning. Many of these Congress leaders have also spoken in public hinting at a possible organisational reshuffle in the state.

However, there are several factors that will prevent the Congress from  removing  Siddaramaiah from the CM’s post.

AHINDA support

Despite the “MUDA land allotment case”, in which he has been accused of misusing his official position to enrich his wife with 14 prime sites in Mysuru, Siddaramaiah enjoys unflinching support from among the AHINDA groups.

AHINDA is a Kannada acronym that stands for minorities (Alpasankhyataru), backward classes (Hindulidavaru), and Dalits (Dalitaru). These three communities make up the largest vote base for the Congress in Karnataka and Siddaramaiah’s welfare-centric policies have always resonated with them.

Since 2013, Siddaramaiah has also been the face of the ‘Bhagya’ brand of welfare schemes, a precursor to the guarantees that has now become the Congress’s main poll platform in all major state and national elections.

Support from Kurubas

Siddaramaiah belongs to the Kuruba Gowda community with a population of 43,72,847, according to the 2011 Socio-Economic and Caste Census. It is regarded as the third most influential caste in Karnataka after the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas.

Last year, when the allegations of graft first surfaced against him, Siddaramaiah said he was being targeted since he belonged to the backward class. Then nearly a dozen prominent seers representing backward communities extended support to him.

 Personal ambitions

The Kuruba strongman, during an interview to a private TV channel earlier this year, said he would seriously consider beating former chief minister late D Devaraj Urs' record as the longest-serving CM. Urs had served as the chief minister for seven years and seven months.

"I have already broken records by tabling 15 budgets, by serving a full term as the CM (2013-2018) just like Urs. I have been in politics and as a minister for the last 40 years. It has been a long time in politics and it was possible because of the people’s blessings. I strongly believe in breaking records,” the CM told The Week.

Big win under Siddaramaiah  

The Congress in Karnataka witnessed its biggest victories -- in terms of seat count and vote share -- under the leadership of Urs and Siddaramaiah.

In the 1972 Assembly election, the Urs-led Congress garnered 165 of the 216 seats, with a whopping 52.17% vote share.

Under Siddaramaiah's leadership in 2023, the Congress won 135 of the 224 seats, gaining a majority with a 42.88% vote share.

National optics

Ahead of the Bihar election, removing Siddaramaiah would not only hint at instability in the Karnataka unit of Congress but also in the INDIA bloc. Sacking a leader from a marginalised community ahead of voting in a Bihar with 64 per cent backward and extremely backward classes population, may also hit the INDIA bloc’s prospects in the polls.

The June 4 stampede in Bengaluru that killed 11 people during the IPL victory parade of the Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) may also go against Shivakumar. While the cricket team has been held 'prima facie responsible', Shivakumar has also come under fire for reportedly allowing the gathering despite crowd control warnings.