Thackerays reunite: Mahayuti braces for impact amid buzz over Sena-MNS alliance ahead of BMC polls

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and his cousin Raj Thackeray, founder of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), shared the stage in Mumbai's Worli Dome on Saturday.

In a big show of unity, cousin brothers Uddhav and Raj Thackeray shared stage after 20 years at a “victory rally” in Mumbai on Saturday to celebrate their victory against “Hindi imposition” following Maharashtra government’s rollback of two crucial orders.

“We have come together to stay together. We will capture power in the Mumbai civic body and Maharashtra,” said Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray as he hugged MNS chief Raj Thackeray on stage.

Their joint appearance has sparked speculation about a possible alliance ahead of upcoming local body elections, including the high-stakes Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls, potentially reshaping Maharashtra's political dynamics.

Why did the cousins break up?

In the early 2000s, the Shiv Sena, under the leadership of Bal Thackeray, was a dominant force in Maharashtra politics. A murder case and succession tussle are said to have led to the breakup of the cousins in 2005.  Both Uddhav and Raj were frequently seen accompanying Bal Thackeray at public events. Their contrasting personalities were, however, evident—Raj was the fiery one and in the public eye while Uddhav quietly worked behind the scenes.

Balasaheb Thackeray’s cadre backed his son Uddhav as his heir, naming him Shiv Sena’s working president in 2003. This is said to have overshadowed Bal Thackeray’s nephew Raj, who felt marginalised despite his popularity.

Also, Raj faced serious allegations in the death of Ramesh Kini in Pune, triggering a high-profile CID and then CBI investigation. Kini, a film distributor, died under mysterious circumstances after reportedly facing pressure related to a dispute involving a theatre owner close to Raj.

Importance of BMC polls

The buzz over the reunion of the two estranged cousins comes ahead of the elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, the largest civic body in Maharashtra, serving the biggest population and managing a substantial budget.

The BMC’s budget exceeds that of some smaller Indian states, making it the richest civic body in India. The last BMC polls, held in 2017, saw the undivided Shiv Sena win the highest number of seats (84), followed by the BJP (82). However, much has changed since then following the split in the Shiv Sena and NCP split due to rebellions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

The Maharashtra government has already initiated the process of holding elections for 29 municipal corporations, including Mumbai, by starting ward delimitation as per Supreme Court orders.

How will the Raj-Uddhav alliance impact BMC polls?

Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena already faces a challenge from the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde)-BJP alliance.  Meanwhile, for Raj, this election is seen as a critical opportunity to revive his dormant party before the next assembly polls.

The Thackerays also know that the victory of BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in the civic polls could mean curtains down on their political career. While Raj is 57,  Uddhav is 65. In the 2024 Maharashtra assembly election, the Shiv Sena (UBT) had won 20 assembly seats of total 288 seats, while the MNS drew a blank.

The possible Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS alliance could pose a challenge to this dominance by consolidating the Marathi voter base.  This may impact Shinde-led Sena in some ways. But it will hardly impact the BJP.

In fact, if the brothers come together, the most immediate beneficiary of a consolidated Marathi vote bank might paradoxically be the BJP.

By uniting the Thackeray cousins, the Marathi vote could coalesce under their banner, leaving the BJP to dominate the non-Marathi Hindutva electorate, a significant demographic in urban Maharashtra.

Mumbai BJP president Ashish Shelar already criticised the rally, calling it a "public appeasement" campaign aimed at elections rather than a genuine event for language issues.

Yet, those who know the two cousins realise that such an alliance is easier than done. Seat-sharing talks between Uddhav and Raj’s parties may also run into troubled waters. Both parties have strongholds in the same areas of Mumbai, be it Worli, Sewri, or Bhandup.