Tamil Nadu opinion poll suggests AIADMK edge over DMK, Vijay’s TVK emerges as key factor

Tamil Nadu will vote in a single phase on April 23, with counting of votes scheduled for May 4

• AIADMK alliance projected to win 114–127 seats in Tamil Nadu poll
• Vijay's TVK could emerge as key player in several constituencies
• Tamil Nadu to vote in single phase on April 23

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An opinion poll conducted by IANS-Matrize suggests that the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) may be poised to dislodge the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government in Tamil Nadu.

The survey projects the AIADMK-led alliance to receive 39-40 per cent of the vote share, potentially translating into 114–127 seats in the 234-member Assembly-- enough to bring it close to forming the government.

Meanwhile, the ruling DMK alliance is estimated to secure 37-38 per cent of the vote, which could result in 104–114 seats.

A key highlight of the survey is the rise of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his newly formed party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Entering electoral politics for the first time, the party is being viewed as a potential disruptor in Tamil Nadu’s traditionally DMK- and AIADMK-dominated Dravidian landscape. The opinion poll estimates TVK’s vote share at 14-15 per cent statewide, which could translate into 6–12 Assembly seats, positioning it as an influential player in several constituencies.

On Friday, AIADMK’s general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami said the party will finalise seat-sharing with BJP and other NDA constituents for the upcoming Assembly polls and formally make the announcement on constituencies allocated to them in four days.

Asserting that there were no hurdles in the negotiations, Palaniswami described the discussions as smooth and on track for an amicable conclusion. He spoke after meeting union home minister Amit Shah on Thursday night.

The AIADMK leads the state’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a coalition comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK).

Tamil Nadu will vote in a single phase on April 23, with counting of votes scheduled for May 4.

Elections to the 234-member Assembly was last held in the state on April 6, 2021 in a single phase. The DMK ended the decade-long rule of the AIADMK, and MK Stalin was sworn in as the 12th chief minister of Tamil Nadu.

The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) secured 159 seats, including 133 for the DMK, marking an absolute majority for the first time in 25 years. The NDA won 75 seats, with 66 for AIADMK.