Skymet sees 103% seasonal rainfall, but June below normal

Although Rajasthan is experiencing below-normal temperatures, there is a 60% chance of rainfall in some regions, with dust storms also likely.

Private weather forecaster Skymet has said that while rainfall will remain strong today, the intensity is expected to slow down starting tomorrow, according to a weather outlook shared with CNBC-TV18.

The forecaster noted that the monsoon is off to a strong start, but this early momentum is unlikely to sustain. Skymet expects the monsoon to slow down after the first week, with June rainfall projected to be below normal at 96 percent of the long-period average (LPA).

However, for the overall season, Skymet maintained its positive outlook, forecasting 103 percent of the LPA, indicating a normal to above-normal monsoon.

Satellite imagery also suggests dense cloud clusters over Mumbai, which could lead to heavy rainfall in the region today. However, Skymet clarified that no cloudburst conditions are currently expected.

“While we see strong rains today and some visible cloud buildup around Mumbai, this does not qualify as a cloudburst. The intensity should taper off starting tomorrow,” Skymet told CNBC-TV18.

The Southwest Monsoon made an early entry into Mumbai and parts of Maharashtra on June 5, marking the earliest onset since 1990, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. The monsoon's early advance comes after Maharashtra recorded 79.6 mm of rainfall between May 1–23, an 844 percent surplus compared to the usual 7.9 mm, making it the wettest May in 35 years for the state.

In the national capital, Delhi recorded its wettest May on record, as overnight thunderstorms and heavy rain on May 25 caused waterlogging, traffic snarls, flight delays, and power outages. Gusty winds reaching 82 kmph added to the disruption.

Amid this widespread weather shift, the IMD issued red alerts for Kerala, Mumbai, Konkan, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, warning of extremely heavy rainfall, strong winds, thunder, and lightning. An orange alert was issued for Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, where gusty winds and thunderstorms are likely to persist.

The early surge in monsoon activity has prompted state authorities to issue high alerts and ramp up preparations across regions vulnerable to flooding and storm damage.

Meanwhile, Cyclone Shakti is being closely monitored as the IMD forecasts the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, which could trigger heavy to very heavy rainfall in several states till May 29.

Currently, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and southern Karnataka remain under red alert due to the possibility of extremely heavy showers. Moderate rainfall is also expected today in Jharkhand, north Uttar Pradesh, and Meghalaya, according to the IMD.

Although Rajasthan is experiencing below-normal temperatures, there is a 60% chance of rainfall in some regions, with dust storms also likely.