Skymet predicts below normal monsoon due to developing El Nino

Skymet Weather has predicted that monsoon rains will be below normal this year.

Skymet Weather forecasts Monsoon 2019 to be 93% OF LPA (+/-5%), below normal rains from June through September. #MonsoonForecast2019#SkymetWeather#Skymet#Monsoon

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— SkymetWeather (@SkymetWeather) April 3, 2019

Monsoon is considered normal when the LPA is between 96 percent and 104 percent.

The reason behind a deficient monsoon will be the developing El Nino phenomenon, which means a rise in temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is the first indication of the kind of rainfall that can be expected during the monsoon season. El Nino brings suppressed rainfalls in India, while its opposite is La Nina, which brings good showers.

This is important because 13 of the last 20 droughts in India occurred during an El Nino. Skymet has also not completely ruled out the possibility of a drought.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had put out a notification in February saying that 2019 would see an El Nino rising, albeit a moderate one. However, authorities at Skymet said that even a moderate El Nino has a wide impact on Indian monsoon, so no one should be complacent.

Skymet predicts that rains will be 77 percent of LPA in June, 91 percent in July, 102 percent in August and 99 percent in September.