Siddaramaiah vs Shivakumar deja vu: Why the Karnataka tightrope is wearing thin for Congress

DK Shivakumar and K Siddaramaiah are locked in yet another power tussle in Karnataka. (File: PTI)

It was well past 9 pm on May 13, 2023, when Karnataka Congress chief DK Shivakumar arrived at the Jayanagar counting centre in Bengaluru. It was the only constituency where results hadn't been declared even after multiple recounts. Eventually, the BJP's CK Ramamurthy scraped through by just 16 votes. Yet, Shivakumar insisted on staying put, seated on a plastic chair amid a sea of BJP supporters, determined to stand by his party and not concede ground without a fight.

That day marked a high point for the Congress. After years of instability and the collapse of its coalition government with the JD(S), the party had stormed back with a resounding win. Much of that resurgence was credited to Shivakumar's organisational drive and political heft.

Cut to 2025 and the party is back to navigating a familiar storm. Shivakumar, citing an internal power-sharing formula, is pushing to take over the Chief Minister's post for the remainder of the term, while Siddaramaiah remains firm that the decision lies with the high command. The leadership, at least publicly, insists that the matter will be resolved through consultations involving Sonia Gandhi, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Lok Sabha LoP Rahul Gandhi.

Behind the scenes, however, the more likely outcome appears to be a prolonged status quo until the next Assembly election, with no immediate resolution in sight.

Several political calculations, both national and state-specific, weigh against a leadership change at this moment. Siddaramaiah remains the Congress' only OBC Chief Minister in the country and is seen as crucial to shepherding the Karnataka caste census to completion. The leadership also fears that replacing a Kuruba CM with a Vokkaliga ahead of high-stakes elections in Kerala and Tamil Nadu could undercut the social justice narrative Rahul Gandhi has been amplifying.

On the ground, the risks are even sharper. Siddaramaiah is credited with building and nurturing the AHINDA coalition — minorities, backward classes and Dalits — that forms the Congress' strongest social base in Karnataka. His removal could alienate sections of these voters. Supporters of Siddaramaiah also argue that the Vokkaliga vote, which Shivakumar draws from, is split between the Congress and the JD(S), limiting its reliability as a decisive bloc.

There is also a personal milestone at play. Siddaramaiah, now 78 and inching towards octogenarian status before the 2028 polls, hopes to surpass D Devaraj Urs as Karnataka's longest-serving Chief Minister. Urs held the post for seven years and 239 days; Siddaramaiah is only a few months behind.

Shivakumar's camp, meanwhile, argues that change is inevitable — if not now, then soon. A staunch loyalist, Shivakumar has repeatedly set aside his own ambitions to deliver results for the party. After steering the Congress to victory in 2023, he famously said, teary-eyed, "I promised Sonia Gandhi I will deliver Karnataka to Congress. I am happy I delivered what I promised."

He has also served as the Congress' crisis manager-in-chief, both in Karnataka and elsewhere, and was instrumental in ensuring that Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra delivered political dividends in the state. All 20 districts that the Yatra traversed in the state saw the BJP failing to win a single seat.

Beyond organisational muscle, Shivakumar commands the backing of significant segments of Vokkaligas and Lingayats, who together account for roughly 28% of Karnataka’s population. For the Congress, this makes him too valuable a leader to sideline.

For the Congress high command, the challenge now is twofold. One hand it needs to preserve its government in Karnataka and on the other, ensure that a restless Shivakumar remains within the fold, ready to step in as he has done in the past. The tightrope is only getting thinner.