Risk of dying from heart ailments, cancer and chronic diseases rising in India; women at higher risk, says Lancet study

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A new study published in The Lancet has found that the risk of Indians dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular ailments, cancer and chronic respiratory illnesses increased between 2010 and 2019 — which was the the decade that led up to the Covid pandemic.

According to the new study, the probability of women dying from NCDs rose by 2.1 per cent, while the increase for men was smaller at 0.1 per cent. The lead author, Professor Majid Ezzati of the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, said the mortality risk is greatest for women over 40 and men over 55, NDTV reported.

The data highlights a concerning reversal for women - the probability of dying from an NCD between birth and the age of 80 had dropped slightly in the previous decade but then rose again in the 2010s. The figure stood at 46.7 per cent in 2001, dipped to 46.6 per cent in 2011 and climbed to 48.7 per cent in 2019.

Meanwhile, for men, the smaller increase was partly attributed to better diagnosis and treatment of several major conditions, including ischemic heart disease and liver cirrhosis.

The study identified ischemic heart disease and diabetes — including chronic kidney disease linked to diabetes — as major contributors to the rise in overall NCD mortality across both sexes.

Conversely, declines were recorded in deaths from liver cirrhosis and other residual NCDs for both men and women. Additional improvements were noted for men in cases of stomach cancer, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), stroke, and certain circulatory diseases.

The findings of the study also flagged worrying trends in lung cancer, with India among just five countries — alongside Armenia, Iran, Egypt, and Papua New Guinea — where mortality rates from the disease increased.

Despite the stark statistics, the researchers cautioned against over-interpreting the results, citing “very low” data quality in many regions. This, they noted, makes the findings “subject to substantial uncertainty.”

Globally, the probability of dying from an NCD rose in 33 out of 185 countries for women and 38 for men, while decreases were observed in 147 countries for women and 152 for men.

The report underscores the pressing need for targeted public health interventions in India, particularly for women, to address the growing burden of non-communicable diseases.