Quad's future: Will regional alliance to keep China in check get caught in Trump tariff crossfire?

Quad's future: Will regional alliance to keep China in check get caught in Trump tariff crossfire?

The recent escalation in trade tensions between India and the United States has cast some uncertainty over the future of Quad alliance, widely seen as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Quad, which is a strategic alliance between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, plays a crucial role in strengthening maritime and transnational security, promoting economic security and responding to various regional emergencies.

The group was revived during Trump's first term in 2017 and has since grown significantly in both substance and cooperation.

A crucial Quad summit is scheduled for October, but recent trade tensions — following Trump’s decision to impose 50% tariffs on India — have pushed security ties to the backseat.

What lies ahead?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to host the upcoming Quad Summit in New Delhi. However, uncertainty now looms over Trump’s participation, which was initially anticipated.

Trump on Wednesday announced an additional 25 per cent tariff on India over purchase of Russian oil, in addition to the 25 per cent announced last week – taking the total levies on some Indian exports to as high as 50 per cent. Moreover, he threatened of “secondary sanctions” over its continued purchase of oil from Russia.

India faces the highest reciprocal tariffs when it comes to Quad members – with Japan at 15 per cent and Australia at 10 per cent.

What’s more is that Trump’s executive order imposing extra tariff does not mention China – which also imports Russian oil – even as Trump has said that he could announce similar further tariffs on Chinese goods.

Amit Singh, associate professor, Special Centre for National Security Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University told LiveMint that the foundation of the Quad was to counter China by elevating India. “But if differences persist among Quad members, such as India having higher tariffs, progress on security cooperation could be limited,” he said.

Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney has also raised concerns over the escalating tensions between India and the US, saying it is “clouding the future of Quad”.

“If Trump persists with his hardline tariff stance toward India -- and follows through on his threat to impose secondary sanctions over its Russian oil imports -- the Quad summit scheduled for this fall in India, which Trump is to attend, could be postponed,” he said on X.

“With Trump’s insults and threats having fueled bitterness in New Delhi, a trade breakthrough has become imperative to salvage the bilateral relationship,” Chellaney stated prior to Trump’s Wednesday announcement.

The South China Morning Post, citing a person familiar with the preparations for the summit, reported that the White House has been pushing India for substantive “deliverables” that the “America first” president could announce during the trip.

Both sides were initially hopeful of finalising a comprehensive trade agreement that would concur with the visit. However, the source said that in the absence of a trade breakthrough, Trump might not make the visit.

The escalating trade dispute between the US and India casts doubt on the timing of the Quad summit and complicates planning efforts, Wendy Cutler, a former American trade negotiator and diplomat, told SCMP.

Curtis said it is possible the US and India could still conclude a trade deal by September to pave the way for a Trump visit to India in the autumn.

However, Trump’s repeated assertion of India as “tariff king” -- coupled with recent remarks calling India's economy "dead", its trade barriers "obnoxious" and accusing the country of profiting from cheap Russian oil while ignoring the killing of Ukrainians in the ongoing war -- casts a shadow over the ongoing trade talks.

Moreover, India’s strong response after Trump’s recent announcements shows it isn’t ready to compromise. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) termed Trump’s tariff announcement as “extremely unfortunate” and repeated that it would do everything to protect its national interests.

Earlier today, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also said he "won't compromise on farmers' interests and is ready to pay heavy price" hours after Trump announced additional 25 per cent tariffs.

"For us, the interest of our farmers is our top priority. India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers. I know we will have to pay a heavy price for it and I am ready for it. India is ready for it," he said.