Modi-Trump meeting in US: What it means for Quad and China?

PM Modi will be one of the first few world leaders to call on President Trump in his second term.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit the US on February 12-13 at the invitation of President Donald Trump. During his visit, Modi and Trump are expected to hold wide-ranging discussions on issues like immigration, trade, defence, and energy cooperation.

With his upcoming visit, PM Modi will be one of the first few world leaders to call on President Trump in his second term. His visit follows that of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

The growing security ties between India and the US will be a key aspect of Modi's meeting with Trump. He is the second leader from the Quad group of countries (India, US, Japan, and Australia) to visit Trump since his inauguration.

Quad has grown from strength to strength in recent years under both Trump and his predecessor Joe Biden. It is widely seen as a regional counterforce to China in the Indo-Pacific. In 2018, China dismissed the Quad as a “headline-grabbing idea.” However, its revival during Trump’s first term was largely driven by concerns over China's growing aggression in the region.

With India now looking for signals on the future of Quad under a more assertive Trump 2.0, Beijing will be closely watching the outcomes of Modi’s visit. Trump remains as determined to curb China’s regional dominance as he is to reshape global trade with sweeping tariffs.

As Quad leaders visit Trump one by one, China's scrutiny of the Trump-Modi meeting is likely to be intense. While much of the grouping’s institutionalisation took place under Joe Biden, Trump played a crucial role in its revival.

The new US administration has signaled strong support for Quad’s future, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio convening a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting as his first official engagement. This underscores the importance Washington continues to place on the alliance.

In his recent article, Harsh V Pant, vice president at Observer Research Foundation, highlighted that while Quad is central to Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, his approach may prioritise security over the broader agenda that expanded under Biden. He noted that Quad has traditionally framed itself as "a force for good" rather than an explicitly anti-China bloc, as reiterated by PM Modi. However, Trump's sharper security focus could test this balance.

For the US, security and stability in the Indo-Pacific are not just regional concerns but strategic imperatives. China’s increasingly aggressive behavior—including advancing unlawful maritime claims, threatening vital shipping lanes, and expanding its military footprint—has raised alarm in Washington.

China’s assertive use of its economic and military power has also reshaped the defence outlook of several nations in the region. In this context, Quad serves as a key platform for the US to counterbalance Beijing’s influence.

For India, Quad is both a tool to strengthen its bilateral ties with the US and a mechanism to push back against China's expansionism in the Indo-Pacific. Both elements are fundamental to India’s diplomatic, security, and economic strategies.

India is also expected to host a Quad meeting later this year, which will be an opportunity for Modi to invite Trump to Delhi. As the US and India reaffirm their commitment to Indo-Pacific security, their growing strategic partnership could send a strong message to China—even as an uncertain trade war looms in the background.