Modernising nuclear arsenal, views India as 'existential threat' and China support: What US intel report revealed about Pakistan

In its Worldwide Threat Assessment report for 2025, the paper highlights Islamabad's continued military modernisation, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons aimed at offsetting India’s conventional military advantage.

Days after an intense military confrontation between India and Pakistan, the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) stated that Pakistan regards India as an “existential threat,” while India considers China its “primary adversary” and views Pakistan more as an “ancillary security problem” to be managed.

In its Worldwide Threat Assessment report for 2025, the paper highlights Islamabad's continued military modernisation, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons aimed at offsetting India’s conventional military advantage.

Pakistan is also upgrading its nuclear arsenal and maintaining strict security over its nuclear materials and command systems. The report says that Pakistan, almost certainly is acquiring weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries, stated the report.

The paper outlines Pakistan military’s key priorities as managing cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours, responding to rising attacks by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalist militants, conducting counterterrorism operations, and continuing nuclear modernisation. Despite ongoing operations, militants killed more than 2,500 people across Pakistan in 2024.

The report states that China remains Pakistan’s main economic and military partner. The two countries conduct multiple joint military exercises every year, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024. Materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely sourced primarily from China, sometimes transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. However, the report says that terrorist attacks targeting Chinese workers involved in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects have caused friction, with seven Chinese nationals killed in Pakistan in 2024.

On India’s strategic front, the report notes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s focus on demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing India’s military power. India is advancing bilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean region through exercises, training, arms sales, and information sharing. It reports that India has increased trilateral engagement in the Indo-Pacific and actively participates in multilateral forums such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and ASEAN.

"India almost certainly will continue promoting its "Made in India" initiative this year to build its domestic defense industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernize its military India continued to modernize its military in 2024, conducting a test of the nuclear-capable developmental Agni-I Prime MRBM and the Agni-V multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle while also commissioning its second nuclear-powered submarine to strengthen its nuclear triad and bolster its ability to deter adversaries," the report added.