LDF or UDF? Opinion poll predicts close fight in 2026 Kerala polls; gain for BJP

Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan (Image courtesy: X/@vijayanpinarayi)

Will the Congress stage a comeback in the upcoming Kerala Assembly polls?

A new opinion poll by IANS in partnership with Matrize points to a closely contested race between the two major coalitions, with the Left Left Democratic Front (LDF) holding a slight edge over Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

The survey projects the LDF to win 61-71 seats in the 140-member Assembly, with a vote share of 42-43 per cent, while the UDF is expected to get 41-42 per cent vote share, which could settle its tally at 58-69 seats. Meanwhile, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is seen making inroads with a 12-13 per cent vote share, though it may win only around two seats.

The 2026 Kerala Assembly polls will be held in a single phase on April 9, with the counting of votes scheduled on May 4.

The electoral contest in Kerala is primarily between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), though the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) remains a contender.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, conducted in a single phase on April 6 and declared on May 2, the LDF made history by retaining power with 99 seats -- the first such repeat victory for an incumbent alliance since 1977. The UDF managed 41 seats, while the NDA, despite securing 11.4 per cent of the vote, failed to open its account.

The LDF led in vote share with 41.5 per cent, ahead of the UDF’s 38.4 per cent, and the win saw Pinarayi Vijayan return as chief minister after completing a full term.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) released Kerala's final voter list on February 21. According to the Kerala CEO, the revision was conducted with January 1 as the qualifying date, and a total of 2,69,53,644 voters were registered in the state through the process. The final voter list comprises 1,31,26,048 male voters, 1,38,27,319 female voters, and 227 third-gender voters. Within this total, 4,24,518 voters belong to the younger electorate of the 18-19 age group.