India’s spot oil needs wane as Russia flows are set to rebound

Russia’s monthly crude exports to India have fallen to 1.6 million barrels a day this year, down from an average of 1.8 million in 2024, according to data from Kpler.

Indian refiners are likely to issue fewer tenders for spot crude in the coming months as volumes from top supplier Russia return to near normal levels, highlighting the trade’s success in working around US sanctions.

The Asian nation’s state-owned processors are on track to secure more than three dozen cargoes that will load next month, according to people familiar with the matter. Combined with deliveries for private refiners Reliance Industries Ltd. and Nayara Energy Ltd., there may be more than 60 shipments of discounted Russian crude in April, or almost 52 million barrels, the people said, declining to be identified as the transactions aren’t public.

Flows between the nations had slipped in recent months as a transition period for tighter US sanctions on shipments from Russia came to an end, forcing the state-owned refiners to issue a slew of spot tenders that saw them buy more expensive oil from alternative producers. Traders have now lined up enough “clean” Russian cargoes — meaning shipments untouched by any US-sanctioned entity — for April to help the companies meet most of their spot demand and ease concerns over future supplies, the people said.

Most of the cargoes were booked at a discount of less than $3 a barrel to benchmarks, the people said. Discounts had collapsed to as little as $1 a barrel earlier this year, as sanctions pushed freight rates higher for Russia shipments.

Russia’s monthly crude exports to India have fallen to 1.6 million barrels a day this year, down from an average of 1.8 million in 2024, according to data from Kpler.

The move comes amid buyers’ broader optimism over supplies from Russia. European officials last week said the Trump administration has pared back its engagement with efforts to enforce sanctions as the US pushes for an end to the war in Ukraine.