Fadnavis' big test, Uddhav's comeback bid: Why all eyes are on high-stakes BMC polls in Mumbai

(L-R) Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis and NCP (SP) supremo Sharad Pawar

Mumbai has been a city without a Mayor for the last three years. The megapolis, with a population of around 2.2 crore, is at the mercy of bureaucrats. However, this absence of the third and lowest strata of governance in the Indian democratic setup is likely to end soon if Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis' prediction proves accurate. Fadnavis recently stated that he expects the Supreme Court to issue an order on the civic body polls by the month-end, and the same could be conducted in May this year. Due to litigations over ward delimitation and the OBC quota, the elections have been delayed. The stakes are high for the much-awaited civic polls, as they present an opportunity for various political players in the state's politics to consolidate themselves and a second chance for those almost decimated in the recent assembly polls.

Whereas the assembly elections were a contest between two alliances, namely Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), almost all the constituents of both alliances have hinted at going solo this time. In the MVA, Shiv Sena (UBT) is not keen to ally with Congress, whereas in the Mahayuti, Fadnavis has asked party workers to prepare for fighting alone. Let's examine, party-wise, what is at stake for each party in the civic elections.

BJP:

The party missed a chance to install its Mayor in the BMC by just two seats. The BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena contested the 2017 BMC polls separately. Out of 227 seats, Shiv Sena won 84, whereas BJP was just two seats behind with 82. The BJP could have easily installed its Mayor by securing the support of seven MNS candidates and a few independents. However, both parties were still in alliance in the state and central governments. According to Fadnavis, at Uddhav Thackeray's request, he forfeited the Mayor's seat, considering the prospects of both parties coming together again in the 2019 Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha polls.

This time, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to win the BMC, the largest civic body in India with an annual budget exceeding that of small states. The party's target is not just to win the BMC but also the maximum number of civic bodies in Maharashtra. The reputation of Fadnavis is also at stake after he raised expectations by leading the party to a landslide victory in the assembly polls.

Shiv Sena (UBT):

Mumbai, Thane, and Aurangabad have historically been Shiv Sena strongholds, with the party winning their civic body elections repeatedly. However, following the bifurcation of the Shiv Sena in June 2022, this will be the first time both factions clash at the civic body level. In the assembly polls, the Uddhav Thackeray faction performed well in Mumbai but not in Thane and Aurangabad. This is another chance for Uddhav Thackeray to restore his party's dominance and politically survive after a humiliating defeat in the assembly elections. Shiv Sena (UBT) has hinted it will contest the elections independently, not as part of the MVA. The question now arises whether Uddhav's candidates will secure the Muslim votes they received in the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections as an alliance partner of Congress.

Congress:

R.T. Kadam was the last Congressman to occupy Mumbai’s Mayor's chair in 1996. Since then, the Shiv Sena has ruled the BMC. Although Congress has consistently been the prime challenger, it has never garnered the required number of seats to reclaim the Mayor's chair. With the changed equations in 2019, the party had hoped to align with Shiv Sena, as it did at the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha levels. Such an arrangement would have helped the party secure Marathi votes, previously relying on Muslim and Dalit votes. However, Shiv Sena (UBT) has hinted at contesting solo, making Congress's dream of winning the Mumbai Mayor's chair a distant one. Congress now hopes to win civic bodies in Northern Maharashtra and Vidarbha.

NCP (Sharad Pawar):

The NCP of Sharad Pawar has negligible presence in Mumbai and has never contested the city's elections with full might. However, Pawar remains strong in Pune and Western Maharashtra cities and will focus on them.

NCP (Ajit Pawar):

Like his uncle Sharad Pawar, Ajit Pawar is also not keen on Mumbai due to his party's limited presence there. However, Pune and Western Maharashtra remain challenges for him. In Pune, Ajit Pawar's party must compete with his uncle's party and the BJP, which has hinted at contesting solo. The state could see a third round of Uncle Vs Nephew fight this year.

MNS:

With no MLA or MP, the upcoming civic body polls are crucial for Raj Thackeray's MNS to remain relevant in Maharashtra politics. Since its inception in 2006, the only civic body MNS won was Nashik in 2012. Even in the 2017 BMC polls, the party secured just seven seats, with six corporators later defecting to Shiv Sena. The MNS is trying its luck again this year, hoping for some arrangement with the BJP. As Raj Thackeray had offered unconditional support to the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, the latter might return the favor.