Delhi Election 2025: Phalodi Satta Bazar predicts sharp fall in AAP's tally

Aam Aadmi party national convener Arvind Kejriwal is eying a third term in power for his party in the Delhi Elections 2025. (File photo: PTI)

The Delhi Assembly Election 2025, scheduled to be held on February 5, 2025 (Wednesday), is witnessing a fierce three-way contest between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress. At play in the polls is AAP's attempt for a third successive term, a strong bid by the BJP to regain power after a gap of 27 years and Congress' fight for survival in a state it ruled for 15 years before Arvind Kejriwal stormed to power in 2013.

Ahead of polls, the Rajasthan-based Phalodi Satta Bazar has offered some insights into how the battle for the Delhi Assembly elections had shaped up so far. Infamous for its controversial but often accurate forecasts, the Phalodi Satta Bazar is located in Phalodi district in the buffer zone of the Thar desert 142 km from Jodhpur. An otherwise sleepy town known for the large number of industries involved in the production of salt and plaster of Paris, Phalodi is known in India as the nerve centre of election-related betting where predictions rarely go wrong.

With the announcement of election dates, the betting circles of Phalodi, have begun speculating on the outcomes. If the latest Phalodi Saatta Bazar predictions are to be believed, the political landscape in Delhi could see a major overhaul.

Phalodi Satta Bazar prediction for Delhi Elections 2025

Congress: The party, which largely dominated Delhi politics from 1952 to 2013, saw itself being relegated to the sidelines in the last two elections. Caught in the AAP storm, the party failed to win a single seat in the last two elections. The Phalodi Satta Bazar predictions, however, suggest little change in the grand old party's fortunes. The satta bazar forecasts only 3 seats for the Congress, signaling a continued struggle for relevance in the capital's political landscape. So far, Congress has announced candidates for 48 constituencies, with key figures like Sandeep Dikshit contesting from New Delhi and Alka Lamba contesting from Kalkaji.

Bharatiya Janata Party: The BJP, which last governed Delhi in 1993, is desperate to win a majority and unseat the AAP from power. Having run an unrelenting campaign against the Aam Aadmi Party for a good part of the last decade, the party is hopeful of turning the ruling party's self-proclaimed credentials of "honest government" on its head. The BJP, which has so far released its first list of 29 candidates, bagged 8 seats in the 2020 elections, five more than its tally of 3 seats in the 2015 polls. Its key candidates include Parvesh Verma (New Delhi) and Ramesh Bidhuri (Kalkaji). According to Phalodi estimates, BJP could win 25-35 seats in 70-member Assembly, a huge jump from the previous two elections but still falling short of the majority mark of 36.

Aam Aadmi Party: Having stormed to power with resounding mandates in 2015 (67 seats) and 2020 (62 seats), the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party faces a tough battle in its bid to form a government for the third successive term. Faced with multiple allegations of corruption -- which the party has denied -- and several of its top leaders having languished in jail on charges that include alleged money-laundering, the party hopes to continue its winning streak riding on its welfare schemes like free power, healthcare and improved education infrastructure.

As per the Phalodi Satta Bazar predictions, the AAP looks set to return to power, though with a wafer-thin majority. As per the projections, AAP might secure between 37 and 39 seats, significantly lower than its 2020 tally of 62 seats but still enough to retain power.

Delhi Election 2025 Schedule

Notification Date: January 10, 2025
Last Date for Nomination: January 17, 2025
Scrutiny of Nominations: January 18, 2025
Withdrawal of Candidature: January 20, 2025
Polling Date: February 5, 2025
Counting Date: February 8, 2025

Phalodi Satta Bazar's Speculative Range

AAP: 37-39 seats
BJP: 25-35 seats
Congress: Around 3 seats

While the Phalodi Satta Bazar has painted a picture of AAP’s likely victory, the projected decrease in its seat count could be indicative of mounting challenges. The BJP, on the other hand, appears to be closing the gap but still faces an uphill task to reclaim power while Congress continues its battle to regain a foothold in the capital it once dominated.

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