Cracks in INDIA bloc? Strain ahead of 2027 UP polls as SP unwilling to give Congress more seats

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav (L) and Congress MP Rahul Gandhi

As Uttar Pradesh begins its march toward the 2027 Assembly elections, cracks in the INDIA bloc are growing sharper. At the heart of the tension is a simmering seat-sharing dispute between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has reportedly capped the Congress' claim at just 35–40 seats in the 403-member Assembly — a move that has sparked serious discontent within the grand old party.

"The INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh is like a marriage where the spouses have already moved into separate bedrooms," quipped veteran journalist and political commentator Preetam Srivastava. "There is no trust, only compulsion."

Congress MP from Saharanpur, Imran Masood, publicly echoed that frustration, asking: "Kya hum bhikhari hain? — Are we beggars that we will plead with SP for seats?”

His sharp comments reflect growing internal resentment over what many in the Congress view as an unfair and dismissive approach by the SP.

Sources within the SP say Akhilesh is determined to prioritize his party's strength over alliance formalities. His core strategy centers around building a robust booth-level network, particularly among the PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) communities.

"Akhilesh is clear: The SP will not repeat the mistakes of 2017," a senior party leader told Moneycontrol. "The Congress neither has the cadre nor the candidates to justify a larger share. We can't waste winnable seats to preserve alliance optics."

"Either the Congress accepts what is offered, or we contest alone. There is no space for sentiment in realpolitik," one of Akhilesh's key aides added.

Samajwadi Party leaders continue to cite the 2017 Assembly election debacle, when their alliance with the Congress yielded just 54 seats combined, as a cautionary tale. Some even claim the party had to lend candidates to the Congress during that election — a move they are unwilling to repeat.

Ground strategy vs alliance optics

Akhilesh's broader message to the INDIA bloc has been consistent: regional dominance will take precedence over national posturing. His decision to support AAP over Congress in the Delhi Assembly polls underlined that logic.

"Akhilesh sees himself as the primary opposition force in UP," said political analyst Rajendra Kumar. "He is open to cooperation nationally but refuses to cede ground locally. In his view, alliance arithmetic cannot override political ground realities."

Despite limited gains in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections — where it won six seats in UP — the Congress is demanding a larger slice of the pie. The leadership is banking on revived grassroots efforts, better urban reach, and a more visible organisational presence across districts.

"Seat-sharing is just the surface," said professor Neelkant Pai, a political scientist and UP specialist. "The deeper issue is trust — and political ego. Akhilesh believes SP is the only viable opposition in UP and does not want to dilute that image."

"This is classic pre-poll brinkmanship. Akhilesh is setting the ceiling to force Congress to prove its ground strength — or quietly accept a supporting role," Preetam Srivastava added.

So far, public statements from both camps remain restrained, but behind the scenes, both parties are preparing for a prolonged negotiation. While the Congress hopes to press its case through urban outreach and performance in local body polls, the SP is investing heavily in cadre training, booth-level mobilization, and minority outreach.

With more than a year to go before the 2027 Assembly elections, the INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh appears increasingly fragile. For now, SP and Congress continue parallel preparations. Akhilesh has made it clear: where the SP is strong, it will lead. The Congress is seeking leverage — through public sentiment, internal mobilisation, or potential panchayat poll outcomes.

"Akhilesh Yadav's strategic vision is clear: prioritize state-level dominance over alliance formalities. His decision to back AAP over Congress in the Delhi Assembly polls is seen as a message to INDIA bloc partners that the strongest party in each state will lead — not necessarily the Congress," said political analyst Manoj Bhadra.

Whether political compulsion will eventually bridge the growing divide — or whether UP will witness a fractured opposition — remains to be seen. What is clear is that a united INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh is far from a reality.