COP30: India faces unprecedented climate costs as extreme weather wreaks havoc

COP30

India is facing a mounting and costly threat as a new climate risk assessment showed the country has lost nearly $170 billion to extreme weather over the past 30 years, with scientists and global organizations warning the future could hold deeper losses unless more preventative steps are taken.

The Germanwatch Climate Risk Index, released on 11 November at the UN climate summit in Belém, Brazil, ranked India as the ninth most affected country globally over the past three decades. Researchers analysed almost 10,000 extreme weather events since 1995, tallying more than 832,000 deaths and direct economic losses topping $4.5 trillion worldwide. For India, the cost from recurring disasters such as floods, heat waves and cyclones continues to rise, affecting entire regions and delaying recovery.

“Countries such as Haiti, the Philippines and India, all of which are among the 10 most affected countries in the (long-term) index, face particular challenges. They are hit by floods, heatwaves or storms so regularly that entire regions can hardly recover from the impacts until the next event strikes,” said Vera Kunzel, co-author of the index. “Without more long-term support, including for adapting to the climate crisis, they will face insurmountable challenges.”

India’s experience is part of a broader crisis highlighted by international agencies and research groups. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that, by mid-2025, more than 86 million displaced people worldwide were living in areas considered highly exposed to climate risks, with extreme weather listed as the cause of a third of emergencies last year. Three in every four refugees and displaced people live in countries vulnerable to climate hazards, UNHCR reported on 10 November, creating a humanitarian crisis that has deepened as new disasters continue to strike.

The science suggests that storms cause the most monetary damage, while floods affect the most people. “Heat waves and storms pose the greatest threat to human life when it comes to extreme weather events,” said Laura Schafer, head of international climate policy at Germanwatch. “Floods affect the highest number of people.”

Inequality worsens climate impacts

These ongoing impacts, scientists note, are aggravated by global inequality in climate funding. Nations considered extremely fragile receive just $2 per person annually in adaptation funding, according to data reported by UN agencies. Wealthier countries, in comparison, receive more than $160 per person. The widening gap between what displaced people need and what is available continues to undermine resilience.

“Displaced communities are among the most vulnerable to climate hazards, yet often the least visible in global climate discussions,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the World Meteorological  Organization. “Climate resilience must reach displaced communities and must be a shared responsibility, grounded in data, equity and urgency.”

Some experts and institutional analyses have stressed that the focus needs to shift from emergency relief to prevention and risk management. The Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), a knowledge partnership led by India, calculates that for every dollar spent making infrastructure disaster-resilient, between $4 and $15 is saved in avoided losses. But currently, most financing still goes to recoveries. “For every $100 in global disaster aid, only about 50 cents goes to prevention,” according to Amit Prothi, the coalition’s Director General.

Risks to India’s development

Researchers with the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and international think tanks estimate that annual infrastructure losses from climate hazards worldwide are between $700 billion and $850 billion. Without shifting priorities, the risks to India’s fiscal stability, economic growth and development ambitions are likely to escalate. Future requirements for coordinated resilience investments could reach more than $10 trillion globally by 2050, according to expert estimates.

Critics and research analysts warn that India’s strategy toward resilience remains uneven. India has taken steps by announcing new programmes and infrastructure priorities, but experts say these efforts still lack thorough and independent assessment. Think tanks and international organizations continue to ask whether financial allocations have led to measurable reductions in risk. “Are measures actually reducing vulnerability, or are they being diluted by gaps in implementation and planning?” asked an analyst familiar with India’s adaptation planning.

For many, the key is ensuring that resilience efforts reach communities most at risk, from coastal villages to crowded towns and informal urban settlements. Studies focused on migration in South Asia have found that adaptation tools such as microfinance, insurance and social safety nets can make a difference, especially for climate migrants and those living at the margins. Early warning systems have also repeatedly been shown to save lives and property in disaster-prone areas, but many local projects remain fragmented or underfunded.

Pathways to resilience

International reports urge a more integrated approach by combining government policy, finance mechanisms, local knowledge and robust community participation. The latest research underlines that resilience is effective only when community needs and vulnerabilities are addressed alongside national infrastructure plans, with a clear focus on equity and long-term planning.

Germany-based Germanwatch, which publishes the Climate Risk Index, said this year’s findings reflect not just a climate emergency but an economic one for many nations. In India, the $170 billion in climate-related losses since 1995 is clear proof that the current, reactive approach has become financially unsustainable. By adopting risk-informed planning and proactive investment, and requiring resilience as a condition for public and private spending, experts believe India can safeguard its economic future against the threat of worsening climate impacts.

As world leaders debate solutions at the UN climate summit in Amazon’s gateway city, the scientific and humanitarian consensus is growing. Without stronger efforts to close the gap between risk and resilience, mounting losses will threaten the social and economic fabric of the most affected countries. Scientific and institutional findings show that India’s exposure to future climate shocks will demand not just government action and international aid, but local focus, evidence-based policies and an urgent shift from reacting to preparing.