Bihar elections: Will Nitish make history or can Tejashwi's MGB defy predictions? All eyes on Nov 14 counting

Will the Nitish Kumar magic work its charm in Bihar yet again or can Tejashwi Yadav finally wrest the throne for himself? All eyes are on the results of the Bihar elections on November 14, which will seal the fate of the two alliances – the ruling NDA and opposition Mahagathbandhan – and draw curtains on the final assembly elections of 2025.

The pollsters have widely predicted an NDA victory in the state and another electoral loss for the Mahagathbandhan of RJD, Congress and Left Parties. But since exit poll predictions are not always accurate, there is always a possibility of the opposition alliance springing a surprise on Friday. Moreover, the entry of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj is likely to add zing to the two-way clash, amid possibilities that the party may end playing spoilsport for either NDA or Grand Alliance in several constituencies.

Bihar Elections 2025: Complete Coverage

Encumbered by tricky caste calculations, politics in Bihar often revolves around social engineering and alliance arithmetic. However, campaigning for the 2025 election did witness a marked shift in focus towards other socio-economic and developmental factors such as jobs, social schemes (especially women-centric ones), corruption and crime.

The NDA, led by JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar, is banking on its 'sushasan babu' to retain the mandate of the voters yet again.

Bihar Election Results Live

Nitish, who has been the chief minister for 20 years, is looking to extend his run till 2030 - a feat not common in Indian politics. Despite challenges like anti-incumbency and general health concerns, Nitish remains the strongest draw in the state who is often credited with strengthening law and order, expanding infrastructure and driving key health and education reforms. His governance record also stands in sharp contrast to the “jungle raj” years under Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi of RJD.

Meanwhile, Tejashwi Yadav, whose RJD emerged as the single largest party in 2020 election, is hoping to finally assume the chief minister's post for himself after serving as Nitish's deputy for two stints. The Yadav scion, who recently turned 36, is looking to shake off the ghost of jungle raj and is making lofty welfare guarantees to woo the voters in the state.

JD(U)'s partner BJP, which is now at parity in NDA when it comes to seat share, is looking to build on its 2020 gains when it emerged as the second largest party. Powered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national appeal, BJP has steadily grown into the dominant force in Bihar’s electoral landscape, cementing its position in both assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

The Congress is looking to script a revival of its own after managing to drive a hard bargain with RJD for 61 seats despite its lacklustre performance in 2020. The party is hoping that its widespread "vote chori" allegation against the government, triggered by the Election Commission's SIR exercise in Bihar, will resonate a chord with the voters.

Rahul Gandhi spearheaded Congress's "Voter Adhikar Yatra", along with Tejashwi, to build on the charge that BJP is using agencies like EC to manipulate elections. Whether the narrative truly strikes a chord or ends up falling flat, the answer will be known in just a few hours.

The outcome will also be closely watched due to the entry of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj, which did not join any alliance and contested all 243 seats alone. Whether Kishor's gambit to go solo and ditch the traditional caste narratives will pay off or not, only the results will tell. Observers will also look at the performance of smaller parties (LJP (RV), HAM(S), CPI(ML)L, etc) within the two factions, which could well be the difference between victory and defeat.

For the 2025 Bihar polls, NDA has promised major infrastructure expansion and employment generation — over one crore jobs through district-level skill centres, support for “Lakhpathi Didis” new expressways, metros, airports and a medical college in every district.

Moreover, the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana (MMRY), under which the NDA credited Rs 10,000 to the bank accounts of some 1.25 crore women, is being seen as a likely game-changer for the Nitish sarkar.

The Mahagathbandhan has focused on welfare guarantees, including one government job per family, Rs 2,500 monthly assistance for women, 200 units of free electricity, restoration of the old pension scheme and expanded health insurance.

Pollsters have unanimously projected a comfortable victory for NDA in the Bihar elections. Exit polls placed the NDA’s tally anywhere between 121 and 167 seats, with Axis My India giving it the lowest projection (121–141) and Matrize the highest (147–167).

News18's Mega Exit Poll predicted 140-150 seats for the NDA. Most other exit polls have also forecast a landslide for the saffron alliance, including JVC (135-150), P-Marq (142-162), People's Insight (133-148), Peoples Pulse (133-159) and Dainik Bhaskar (145-160). A poll of 10 exit polls has pegged the number of seats for NDA at 148, far higher than the majority mark of 122.

Meanwhile, pollsters have projected a grim forecast for the Mahagathbandhan of RJD, Congress and Left Alliance. Many predicted that the opposition bloc will not even cross its 2020 tally of 110. Only Axis My India has predicted that the alliance may give a tough fight to the NDA with a forecast of 98-118 seats - still short of majority. IANS-Matrize has given the lowest forecast to the Mahagathbandhan at 70-90.

Similarly, exit polls have predicted a disappointing debut for Prashant Kishor, whose Jan Suraaj is contesting its maiden elections. Most pollsters predicted that the party may draw a blank in the election while some said that it may win one or two seats. An aggregate of exit polls shows Jan Suraaj winning just 1 seats in the election.

While exit polls are not always exact and just indicative, the unanimous trends indicate a repeat of 2020 unless the Tejashwi-led alliance springs a surprise.

On Wednesday, the markets also took cues from the exit poll predictions, settling higher for the third straight day. Sensex rallied 595.19 points or 0.71 per cent while broader Nifty climbed 180.85 or 0.7 percent. The wide prediction of an NDA landslide was among the reasons behind the bullish sentiment.

The results will have a significant bearing on national politics with the winner taking the momentum forward into crucial elections lined up next year. States/UTs like Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry are due to go to polls in 2026. The outcome in Bihar will help set the tone for these battles and further shape the post–Lok Sabha narrative, especially in the wake of the BJP-led NDA’s dramatic rebound after the general elections.