Big winners and losers of Bihar elections: Nitish Kumar, 'Vote chori', MY maths

As with every election, the Bihar poll results also delivered winners and losers in equal measures. The biggest winner of the election was clearly the NDA, which has delivered a crushing blow to the Mahagathbandhan and is on its way to win over 200 seats. However, beyond the big numbers are the many victories and defeats that tell the story of a hard-fought election. Here are the big winners & losers of Bihar elections 2025:

Winners

Nitish Kumar: The chief minister of Bihar is clearly the biggest winner of the election, who has defied almost every challenge that came his way: anti-incumbency, health issues, fallout of political U-turns and BJP dominance within NDA. The man has kept his chair for 20 years and is eyeing another term in office, signalling that Bihar is clearly not done with its 'sushasan babu'. His appeal has also powered a dramatic turnaround for JD(U), which is eyeing 80-plus seats this year, compared to 43 in 2020.

Narendra Modi: Another election, another vote of confidence for Modi. The BJP is eyeing a record performance in Bihar on the back of a super-charged campaign spearheaded by the Prime Minister. He addressed 15 rallies in Bihar and held a mega roadshow to drum up support for BJP on the back of the party's double-engine sarkar narrative and the welfare push for the state. In the absence of a strong local face, it was effectively Modi on the ballot in every seat; and he delivered yet again.

Chirag Paswan: The LJP (RV) leader has emerged out of Ram Vilas Paswan's towering shadow to carve a significant political space for his party which suffered a split shortly after his father's death. This is the second successive election where Paswan delivered the numbers for NDA. In the Lok Sabha polls, his party won all 5 seats it contested. In 2025 Bihar elections, LJP (RV) is on its way to winning 22 out of the 29 seats it contested. The solid performance has given further credence to Paswan's rising stature within the NDA and fillip to the young leader himself, who calls himself Modi's "Hanuman".

Smaller allies: Besides LJP(RV), other smaller NDA allies like Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM (S) and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) also delivered good returns. HAM (S) is set to win 5 out of 6 seats it contested while RLM is likely to win 4 out of 6 seats it contested. The terrific strike rate of all NDA partners also shows how the alliance hit the bullseye with its seat-share math.

Voters: In a country where fractured mandates often lead to unstable governments, a decisive verdict is always a welcome outcome — especially for voters. In Bihar, the electorate, particularly women, not only backed the ruling NDA but also sent a powerful message of confidence in the alliance. This ultimately benefits the voters themselves, ensuring continuity and stability in governance.

Losers

Tejashwi Yadav & MY politics: The Yadav scion failed to dislodge the Nitish-Modi combo yet again despite leading a busy campaign over the last few months. While there are many reasons behind Tejashwi's failure, the two obvious ones stand out: 1) the failure to break out of the MY (Muslim-Yadav) mould, which forms the core vote base of RJD; and 2) the ghost of jungle raj that continues to haunt him election after election, preventing him from emerging as a viable alternative.

Rahul Gandhi: In yet another election, the Congress leader failed to flip the dwindling fortunes of his party despite spearheading the campaign and leading the narrative war against BJP with his allegations of "Vote Chori". The grand old party, which won just 19 seats in 2020 at a dismal strike rate, is set to slide further in 2025 with leads in just 5 seats so far. Rahul’s campaign once again missed the mark, leaning on national rhetoric instead of building a compelling local narrative that Bihar’s voters could relate to.

Prashant Kishor: The Jan Suraaj founder proved to be all hype but no result as the man who scripted many election victories for others could not make a mark himself in his maiden electoral outing. The party is set to score a duck in Bihar, suggesting that Kishor's bet on a purely development-driven narrative and rejection of caste arithmetic failed to strike a chord with voters. Plus, the newbie factor may have also stung Kishor, showing that national popularity may not always translate into votes.

Mukesh Sahani: The political revival of Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) fell flat in the election with the party failing to win a single seat. Sahani, who heavily banks on the Mallah, Sahani, and Nishad votes, failed to transfer the EBC votes to Mahagathbandhan. His VIP lost all 15 seats it contested, dashing Sahani's faint hopes of becoming the deputy CM of Bihar.

Tej Pratap: Lalu's son and Tejashwi Yadav's estranged brother Tej Pratap fizzled out like a damp firecracker after failing to win a single seat in the election. He had floated the Janshakti Janta Dal (JJD) after breaking ranks with the RJD, fielding candidates on 22 seats. To add salt to his wounds, Tej Pratap himself came 3rd from Mahua, losing out to both LJP (RV) and RJD.

Vote Chori: The vote chori campaign may have made some waves nationally but failed to make any impact on the ground. The voters of Bihar were clearly not bothered by the narrative amplified by the Congress and later, the RJD, by compulsion of being an INDIA bloc ally. Data shows that out of the 106 seats where the SIR exercise had an impact, 89 went to NDA while only 14 went to Mahagathbandhan.

INDIA bloc: The election is also a setback for the larger opposition INDIA bloc which has failed to mount a challenge against the BJP-led NDA after showing signs of revival in the Lok Sabha polls. Post the general election, the INDIA bloc allowed BJP-led NDA to win the polls in Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi and now Bihar. The landslide victory of NDA reflects a complete reversal of the Lok Sabha debacle, with the opposition losing steam.