Assembly elections 2026: Not BJP, these two leaders may be Congress's biggest 'rivals' in upcoming polls

If these rounds of state elections are as much about the ability of the anti-BJP front (INDIA grouping) to resurrect from successive drubbings following the Parliamentary elections of 2024, it is equally about the Congress' -- in extension Rahul Gandhi's ability to be in contention to lead the INDIA bloc and present himself as a strong candidate to take on the might of BJP.

• Strains within INDIA coalition emerge ahead of state polls
• MK Stalin and Mamata Banerjee eyed as INDIA bloc leaders
• Congress faces challenges in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Bengal, Assam

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Weeks before the Election Commission announced the dates for the upcoming Assembly polls in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, the strains within the INDIA coalition were beginning to be expressed through multiple forums.

For Rahul Gandhi, the strains are becoming increasingly personal. Already facing flak from Congress' old guard, the former party chief now finds himself in backfoot as regional satraps, otherwise allies in the national context, begin flexing their muscles.

If these rounds of state elections are as much about the ability of the anti-BJP front (INDIA grouping) to resurrect from successive drubbings following the Parliamentary elections of 2024, it is equally about the Congress' -- in extension Rahul Gandhi's ability to be in contention to lead the INDIA bloc and present himself as a strong candidate to take on the might of BJP.

Congress knows that it is at best a fringe player in Tamil Nadu, where it is in coalition with ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and a potential challenger in Kerala where it is taking on Pinarayi Vijayan's Left Democratic Front (LDF) as the leader of United Democratic Front (UDF).

In Bengal and Assam, Congress isn't much in contention, although in the northeastern state of Assam the party is involved in a direct bipolar contest with BJP lead by all-powerful Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Reading between the lines

In February, Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin projected his father and CM MK Stalin, as a national leader. The pronouncement raised eyebrows when he said in no uncertain terms: "MK Stalin is a leader who guides not just Tamil Nadu but the entire country.

Eyeing a second term, Stalin, outlining his vision for 2030, on several occasions over the past three months has pitched himself as the torchbearer of the state’s Dravidian legacy. Calling it the ‘Dravidian Model 2.0’, Stalin listed out 14 promises that he claimed he would fulfill if he gets elected again.

Several opposition leaders across India believe that a concerted democratic fight against the BJP must be led under MK Stalin's leadership." It did not stop there. Putting his weight behind the Tamil Nadu CM, the Congress veteran Mani Shankar Aiyar, a one-time close associate of former PM Rajiv Gandhi, also said that Stalin is best suited to be the convenor of the INDIA bloc.

The Congress, which has been demanding over 35 seats in 240-seat assembly, seems to have mellowed a little, while the DMK, which was initially willing to concede 27 or 28 seats, is also now in a reconciliatory mood. In 2021, the Congress was allotted 25 seats.

Eyeing a second term, Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin presented a ‘Stalin statement’ Friday, outlining his vision for 2030, attempting to pitch himself as the torchbearer of the state’s Dravidian legacy. Calling it the ‘Dravidian Model 2.0’, Stalin listed out 14 promises that he claimed he would fulfill if he gets elected again.

Ever-growing clout of Mamata Banerjee

Mani Shankar Aiyar, while pitching Stalin's name, had also batted for the West Bengal CM as an alternative, going to the extent of saying that the alliance will be gone without Mamata. Political watchers believe the West Bengal results, may set a churn in the national politics as a reinvigorated Banerjee will like to play a pivotal role in leading the INDIA bloc against the BJP with the Congress continuing to slide downwards.

A strong poll show by the TMC may put Mamata Banerjee in pole position to lead the anti-BJP formation by further diluting the role envisaged by the Congress for Rahul Gandhi.

In the lead-up to Lok Sabha elections of 2024, her name was endorsed by several regional heavyweights. She thanked several senior leaders of the INDIA bloc who endorsed her to lead the Opposition coalition. “I am indebted to everyone for the respect they have shown for me. I pray for their good health. I want them as well as their party to stay well. I also want INDIA to stay well,” Ms. Banerjee told journalists in Digha in December 2024.

Her remarks came after veteran Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad Yadav on Tuesday (December 10, 2024) said that the leadership of INDIA bloc may be given to Mamata Banerjee. Leaders such as NCP(SP) chief Sharad Pawar have also backed her.

In 2011, the Congress was in a coalition with the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which ended the Left’s 34-year-old run in Bengal that year. The Congress fought the 2016 and 2021 assembly polls in partnership with the Left.

Since 2016, the Congress has fought two Assembly elections and one Lok Sabha election in alliance with the Left, yet it has remained a marginal and struggling force in West Bengal politics. Back in 2011, when the Trinamool Congress (TMC) was part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), it won 184 seats in the 294-member Assembly, while the Congress secured 42.