Assembly elections 2026 Opinion Poll highlights: Kerala cliffhanger, DMK holds edge over AIADMK in tight race in TN; Mamata to hold fort in Bengal

Kerala is set to witness a close contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), with the CM Pinarayi Vijayan-led coalition having a narrow edge, as per a survey by VoteVibe.  According to Vote Tracker, a pre-poll opinion survey by VoteVibe, LDF is projected to win 71 seats in the 140-member Kerala assembly, which is exactly the majority mark needed to form the government in the state. Meanwhile, the survey said that Congress's UDF will win 67 seats, just a handful fewer than LDF. Read more

The opinion poll on Tamil Nadu elections shows the DMK-led alliance slightly ahead with 40.1% vote share, closely followed by the AIADMK alliance at 38.1%. Actor Vijay’s TVK emerges as a significant third force with 14.8%, while NTK, others, and undecided voters account for smaller shares. The tight gap between the two major alliances suggests a competitive contest, with minor shifts in voter sentiment likely to influence the outcome.

Nalin Mehta, Managing Director, Moneycontrol: This election is as important for the battle of succession in DMK as it is for the future of Tamil Nadu. There is a lot of family dynamics at play. For Stalin, this is a very important election. It also has huge implications for the balance of power in the Opposition alliance. It looks like there is no clear momentum for the incumbent. This is much more about traditional election and the old contours of Tamil Nadu politics have not changed and the real big factor, anti-incumbency, seems to be catching up.

Aman Sharma, News Director, CNN-News18: This election in Tamil Nadu will be decided by women voters. DMK feels women voters are with the party because of its welfare schemes. BJP has made women's safety the top issue in this election.

GVL Narasimha Rao, BJP, tells CNN-News18: Best alliance which can give alternate govt is NDA. Whatever TVK gets is likely to hurt DMK more than NDA.

Salem Dharanidharan, DMK, tells CNN-News18: Very confident that DMK will get 180 seats.

Tehseen Poonawalla, Analyst, tells CNN-News18: Vijay ran away when people died at his rally. He is a media figure only.

The pinion poll on Tamil Nadu’s next Chief Minister shows MK Stalin leading with 39.9% support, closely followed by EPS at 37.5%. Actor Vijay trails at 14.7%, while 3.9% prefer other candidates and 4.1% remain undecided. The numbers suggest a tight contest between the DMK and AIADMK, with emerging players yet to significantly disrupt the race.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led (DMK) alliance in Tamil Nadu is poised for a tough fight against All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led (AIADMK) opposition, according to Vote Tracker by VoteVibe. However, the DMK is expected to retain power. The opinion poll gives DMK-led alliance 113-123 seats, whereas the AIADMK-led alliance is poised to get 106-116 seats. However, a big reading from the poll is that Vijay's TVK is almost a non-existent party with 2-8 seats. Almost 42 per cent of the people, included in the poll suggested that it will be a bipolar contest. Read more

Subhir Bhowmik, Journalist: I don't find the numbers are not very surprising. It is in line with how TMC performed in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections.

Prof. Manojit Mandal, Political Analyst: I feel SIR as an issue will have crucial impact in how people vote.

RP Singh, BJP: Let the polling begin, the numbers will surely change, it is too soon to make any remark. Read more

Nalin Mehta, Managing Editor, Moneycontrol: "I’m not surprised that SIR hasn’t emerged as a major issue. We saw a similar pattern in Bihar, where the Congress tried to make it a big issue, but it didn’t resonate much on the ground.  In that sense, it does not matter. It may actually help Mamata Banerjee in some pockets. What is surprising, however, is the issue around 'lack of development’ as a concern because West Bengal has seen relatively slow development over the past 10-15 years."

Amitabh Tiwari, Analyst, tells CNN-News18: “Unemployment remains a central issue, closely tied to the broader narrative of lack of development. The BJP has also highlighted this through its ‘Swarnim Bengal’ campaign, arguing that West Bengal has fallen behind its earlier position as a leading state.

On SIR, it’s important to note that most voters have already gone through the exercise. Only about 60 lakh people have been flagged under the ‘logical discrepancy’ category. For those already on the voter list, SIR is unlikely to be a major concern. The roughly 6% who see it as an issue are largely those affected by these discrepancies. Notably, concern is higher among minority communities, at around 10%.”

Unemployment emerges as the top issue in West Bengal, cited by 37.2% respondents, far ahead of others. Law & order and women’s safety follow at 15.9%, while price rise (10.5%) and corruption (10.3%) remain key concerns. Other issues include lack of development (6.6%), SIR (5.9%), illegal immigration (1.9%), and Bengali asmita/insider vs outsider (1.8%). A small share chose others (2.1%), while 7.9% couldn’t say.

TMC is managing the anti-incumbency factor while BJP is shifting from rhetoric to targeted corruption-led accusation against the ruling party, says Smita Prakash, Editor ANI on opinion poll.

The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) is set for another term in West Bengal and may win 184–194 seats in the 294-member West Bengal assembly, according to Vote Tracker by VoteVibe. Meanwhile, the BJP is likely to capture 98–108 seats, building on its 2021 performance, but will fall short of the numbers required to topple the Mamata government. According to the pre-poll survey, other parties, including Congress and the Left Front, are expected to secure only 1–3 seats. Read more

The poll establishes Himanta Biswa Sarma as the frontrunner for CM, with 48% support, compared to 37.7% for Gaurav Gogoi. Sarma dominates among urban voters (58.4 %) and most caste groups, but the 18–24 age group bucks the trend, where Gogoi leads (42 .7.7 %). Hindu voters -- SC (72 .7 %), UCH (70. 2 %), OBC (64.8 %) -- overwhelmingly prefer Sarma, while Muslim voters strongly back Gogoi (65 %), says the poll. Read more

According to the survey, the NDA also enjoys a clear advantage in vote share, with 42.7% of respondents backing the alliance, compared to 36.1% for the opposition. Crucially, the perception battle appears tilted in favour of the ruling alliance: 51.8% of respondents believe the NDA is most likely to form the next government, significantly ahead of its rivals. Read more

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a thumping victory in the upcoming Assam polls, according to Vote Tracker by VoteVibe. The pre-poll opinion survey said that the BJP-led NDA could win 80–90 seats in the 126-member Assembly, well above the majority mark. Meanwhile the opposition INDIA bloc is projected to secure 29–39 seats. Read more

In Assam, the election battle is expected to be largely between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and the opposition Indian National Congress, represented by Lok Sabha MP Gaurav Gogoi. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance currently holds 86 of the 126 seats in the Assam Assembly. The Congress has 22 seats and faces a challenging task to cross the majority mark of 64. The term of the 15th Assam Legislative Assembly will end before May 23.

In Kerala, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his Communist Party of India (Marxist) will seek another term in power as part of the Left Democratic Front. The LDF is expected to face strong competition from the United Democratic Front led by the Indian National Congress, as well as the Bharatiya Janata Party. The term of the 15th Kerala Legislative Assembly, which has 140 members, is scheduled to expire before May 23, 2026.

In Tamil Nadu, the Bharatiya Janata Party is hoping to expand its presence in a state where the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, led by Chief Minister MK Stalin, remains a dominant force. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) finalised its seat-sharing arrangement, with BJP to fight on 27 seats out of 234 while All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) will contest on 178 seats. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) will battle it out on 18 seats, and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) on 11 seats. The elections will decide the fate of the 234-member Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. The current Assembly’s term is scheduled to end on May 10.

The contest in West Bengal is expected to be a direct fight between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the ruling All India Trinamool Congress, which has governed the state since 2011 under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. A fierce political battle is anticipated between the two rivals. The term of the current 17th West Bengal Legislative Assembly, a 294-member House, will end on May 7, 2026.

Elections for West Bengal's 294 assembly seats will be held in two phases on April 23 and April 29. As per the Election Commission of India (ECI), the results will be declared on May 4.

1. Assam- Date of Polling- 9th April; Date of Counting 4th May

2. Tamil Nadu- Date of Polling- 23rd April; Date of Counting- 4th May

3. West Bengal- Date of Polling- 23rd April (1st phase), 29th April (2nd phase) ; Date of Counting- 4th May

4. Keralam- Date of Polling- 9th April; Date of Counting- 4th May.

5. Puducherry- Date of Polling- 9th April; Date of Counting- 4th May

The Election Commission of India announced the polling schedule for the 2026 Assembly elections across five states and one Union Territory, with voting set to begin on April 9 and counting of votes scheduled for May 4. According to the poll panel, elections in Assam, Kerala, and the Union Territory of Puducherry will be held in a single phase on April 9. Polling in Tamil Nadu will take place on April 23. Meanwhile, elections in West Bengal will be conducted in two phases, with voting scheduled for April 23 and April 29. The counting of votes for all states and the Union Territory will take place on May 4, the Commission said.