Why Sachee Trivedi says India is the only economy that will double twice

Trident Capital Investments founder says India’s diversified economy, steady growth and shifting global capital flows could support long-term expansion.

• India poised to repeatedly double its economic size over time
• Diversified economy offers broad investment opportunities
• Geopolitical tensions and capital flows impact investor sentiment

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India remains one of the few economies globally with the potential to repeatedly double its economic size over time, according to Sachee Trivedi, Founder and Director of Trident Capital Investments.

Speaking at the Moneycontrol Global Wealth Summit, Trivedi said sustained economic expansion and a diversified economic base position India uniquely among major emerging markets.

“India is the only economy that will double and double again,” he said, pointing to the country’s long-term growth trajectory.

India’s real GDP growth continues to remain around 6–7.5 percent, with nominal GDP growth close to 10 percent, supporting its structural expansion over time.

Global capital follows returns

Trivedi said capital flows across the world ultimately chase returns rather than narratives.

“Capital will come wherever the returns are,” he said, noting that absolute returns in India have declined recently, which has affected near-term investor sentiment.

However, he said global capital allocation toward both India and China remains relatively small compared with developed markets.

“Around 3 percent of global capital goes to China and about 2 percent to India.”

Geopolitics shaping investment flows

Trivedi said recent geopolitical developments, including tensions involving Iran and the broader Middle East conflict, highlight shifting global strategic dynamics.

According to him, these developments are adding pressure on countries aligned with China while increasing geopolitical scrutiny around global supply chains and capital flows.

“The Iran conflict signals a broader geopolitical strategy, with Russia tied up in the Ukraine war and pressure building on countries such as Venezuela and Iran.”

These developments, he said, are contributing to concerns among global investors about deploying capital in certain markets.

The bear case for China, according to Trivedi, largely centres on risks around capital controls and potential sanctions.

“You will not be allowed to take out your money if you put it in China,” he said.

India’s advantage: A diversified economy

Trivedi said one of India’s biggest strengths is the diversity of its economy and capital markets compared with several emerging market peers.

“If you want a broad-based economy which has financials, healthcare, defence, that country is only India.”

Many other emerging markets remain heavily concentrated around a few large companies or sectors.

South Korea’s equity market, for instance, is heavily dominated by companies such as Samsung and SK Hynix, while Taiwan’s market is largely driven by TSMC.

Similarly, Brazil’s markets are dominated by companies like Vale and Petrobras, while South Africa’s markets are heavily influenced by Naspers and Prosus.

In contrast, India’s $4–4.5 trillion market offers exposure across financials, consumption, healthcare, defence and consumer discretionary sectors, creating a more diversified investment landscape.

The bear case for India

Trivedi acknowledged that global investors often cite several concerns when evaluating India as an investment destination.

These include high valuations, relatively slower earnings growth, currency volatility, taxation and regulatory factors, as well as concerns around India’s exposure to emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence.

He said some investors believe India lacks a strong AI narrative compared with global technology hubs.

However, Trivedi noted that the IT sector accounts for only around 7 percent of India’s GDP, meaning the broader economy is not overly dependent on it.

“If people are really concerned that AI will bruise India, AI will butcher the US.”

Structural growth drivers remain strong

India’s economy continues to benefit from a large services ecosystem and structural growth across sectors such as finance, healthcare, technology and professional services.

The country has built a $400 billion services ecosystem spanning software, healthcare, banking, finance and accounting, which remains a key pillar of its economic strength.

Trivedi said labour-intensive sectors such as construction and manufacturing will continue to play a crucial role in employment and economic growth, even as automation expands globally.

He also highlighted that free trade agreements (FTAs) should be viewed as a long-term structural driver rather than a short-term catalyst.

“FTAs are not an FY27 story, they are a certainty story,” he said.

According to him, manufacturing growth and global supply chain diversification will continue to support India’s long-term economic trajectory.