US Fed Highlights: Powell says don’t know what will happen but need to watch Trump’s policy; rates steady

"We are not against innovation" and banks interacting with the cryptocurrency sector, Jerome Powell said.

But he added: "It would be helpful if there were a greater regulatory apparatus around crypto ... That would be a very constructive thing for Congress to do.”

Amid concerns about overheated stock market, Jerome Powell pointed out strong bank capitalization and healthy household finances. He attributed part of the market’s surge to tech and AI enthusiasm but reiterated that the US Fed monitors leverage and funding risks closely.

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that stock prices appear elevated by many metrics but said the Fed’s high interest rates help maintain financial stability. “You can’t just take equity prices—you have to look at rates, too,” he saio, adding that overall financial conditions remain a “mixed bag”.

With monetary policy now significantly less restrictive and the economy holding strong, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed sees no immediate need for changes. “Right now, we feel like we are in a very good place,” he said, while keeping a close watch on inflation and the labour market.

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is in a good position with both policy and the economy, emphasising there is no urgency to make adjustments. “We feel like we don’t need to be in a hurry to make any adjustments,” he said, adding that decisions will remain data-driven.

When asked whether the Fed is planning to cut rates in March, Jerome Powell said: "The economy's strong, the labor market solid, downside risks to the labor market appear to have abated. And we think disinflation continues on a slow and sometimes bumpy path. That tells me, and the other members of the committee, the broad sense of the committee, actually, is that we don't need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance."

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank must see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labour market before we consider making adjustments.”

After reiterating the US central bank's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation rate, Fed Chair Jerome Powell the inflation target is not subject to change during a planned review of the monetary policy framework. “The committee’s 2% inflation goal will be retained and will not be a focus of the review," said Powell.

"The most recent data do suggest that reserves are still abundant. Reserves remain roughly as high as they were when runoff began. And the federal funds rate has been very steady within the target range. We track up a bunch of metrics and they do tend to point to to reserves being abundant," he said.

"It's a big event in the stock market and in particular parts of the stock market. I mean, what really matters for us is macro developments. And that means substantial changes in financial conditions that are persistent for a period of time. So I wouldn't put that label on on these events, although of course we're all watching it with interest."

"The range of possibilities very, very wide. We don't know what's going to be tariff. We don't know for how long or how much, what countries. We don't know about retaliation. We don't know how it's going to transmit through the economy to consumers."

"There are lots of places where that price increase from the tariff can show up between the manufacturer and the consumer. Just so many variables. So we're just going to have to wait and see. And, you know, the best we can do is what we've done, which is study up on this."

When Jerome Powell was asked about the Federal Reserve withdrawing from a global body of central banks and regulators devoted to exploring ways to police climate risk in the financial system.

The body is known as the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).

"It was really not driven by politics. It was driven by kind of the disconnect between the work of the NGFS and our mandate," he said.

"I think this is just way beyond any plausible mandate that you could attribute to the Fed. And so we have a quite narrow role ... and I think that that the activities of the NGFS are not a good fit for the Fed, given our current mandate and authority."

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged uncertainty over key economic policies under President Donald Trump's new administration, stating, “We don’t know what will happen with tariffs, with immigration, with fiscal policy, with regulatory policy.” He added that the Fed must wait for these policies to be articulated before assessing their economic implications.

When asked about comments from Elon Musk that the Fed is overstaffed, Jerome Powell said: "We run a very careful budget process. We're we're fully aware that that, you know, we owe that to the public. And we believe we do that. And I've got no further comment than that."

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to its 2% inflation target, clarifying that the recent removal of language about inflation progress was not intended to signal a shift in policy. Powell explained that the change was simply a decision to “shorten” the statement, emphasising that the Fed’s focus on inflation remains steadfast.

Despite recent developments, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that his assessment of the economy has not changed. He added that policy is now “meaningfully less restrictive” than before the Fed began cutting rates.

Jerome  Powell said he still believes what he said in 2021, that the best and most successful organizations are often the ones that have strong and persistent committment to diversity and inclusion.

"We are working to align our policies with the executive orders as appropriate and consistent with applicable law."

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the current policy stance is “well calibrated” to achieving the central bank’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.

Amid questions about political pressure from President Donald Trump, Jerome Powell reaffirmed the US Fed’s independence: “The public should be confident that we will continue to do our work as we always have, focusing on using our tools to achieve our goals, and, really, keeping our heads down and doing our work.”

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell refused to respond to question about President Donald Trump’s call for an immediate rate cut. He said, “It’s not appropriate to do so.” He confirmed he has had no contact with Trump and will not comment on the president’s statements.

"We're going to be focusing on seeing real progress on inflation or alternatively some weakness in the labor market before we consider making adjustments," says Jerome Powell.

Real progress on inflation or weakness in the labor market will be the focus before further rate cuts are made.

Asked about the removal of language that inflation has made progress toward the 2% goal, Jerome Powell said: "We're not going to overinterpret two good or two bad readings. But this was not meant to send a signal other than this. You know, you can take away from all of this that we remain committed to achieving our 2% inflation goal sustainably."

Jerome Powell responded when asked about Donald Trump's demand for interest rates to fall. Powell said, "I'm not going to have I'm not going to have any any response or comment whatsoever on what the president said. It's not appropriate for me to do so."

Asked if Donald Trump has communicated with him, Powell said: "I've had no contact."

US stocks fell following the Fed’s policy announcement, with the S&P 500 sliding about 0.8%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields climbed, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising to 4.58% from 4.548% on Tuesday.

"We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks on both sides of our mandate."

"The committee will assess incoming data. The evolving outlook and the balance of risks. We're not on any pre-set course."

"The economy is strong overall, and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years."

"Labour market conditions have cooled from their formerly overheated state and remain solid. Inflation has moved much closer to our 2% longer run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated."

"Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. For 2024 as a whole, GDP looks to have risen above 2%, bolstered by resilient consumer spending."

"In the labour market, conditions remain solid."

"The unemployment rate has stabilized since the middle of last year, and at 4.1% in December, remains low. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year, and the jobs to workers gap has narrowed."

The Federal Reserve's move to keep interest rates steady at 4.25-4.5% runs counter to Donald Trump’s view that he should have influence over Fed policy. The decision signals that the central bank has prioritised inflation control, while economists fear that President Donald Trump’s trade and economic policies could add to price pressures.

The bank dropped from its latest policy statement language saying inflation "has made progress" towards the Fed's 2% inflation goal, noting only the pace of price increases "remains elevated."

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed interest rate expectations, was last up 4.8 basis points on the day at 4.255%.

Benchmark 10-year yields rose 3.6 basis points to 4.585%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year yields was at 33 basis points.

All 12 voting Fed officials agreed to keep interest rates steady at this meeting. This follows a split decision last month when one official dissented. That official did not vote this time and will serve as an alternate for the rest of the year.

The US Fed paused the recent trend of easing policy, holding the target interest rates steady after three straight cuts since September 2024.

Treasury yields rose after the announcement, and traders of short-term rate futures leaned into the view that the Fed will wait until June to cut rates again, with a second rate cut still expected by year's end.

The US central bank reiterated that it will assess incoming data and evolving risks before making further interest rate adjustments. It remains prepared to act if risks threaten economic stability.

The FOMC said in the statement that risks to its dual mandate—maximum employment and 2% inflation—are roughly in balance. However, it acknowledged ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook.

The US Fed said that economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace, with a stable unemployment rate and strong labour market conditions. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The US Federal Reserve has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50%. The central bank reiterated its data-dependent approach for future adjustments.

US Fed flags inflation remains 'somewhat elevated'. This is a less confident view on inflation than the December statement, which said that the inflation has made progress towards the Fed's 2% goal

Risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are 'roughly in balance'

Inflation remains 'somewhat elevated'

Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace

Fed holds U.S. interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% range

Most brokerages continue to expect a slower pace of interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, with a majority pointing to a pause in rate cuts.

Recent economic data, including the jobs report and a rise in consumer price index, have dampened bets for a higher number of cuts in the first of half of this year.

The Fed had eased interest rates by 100 basis points (bps) last year.

Market participants are betting on at least two rate cuts by the end of this year, as per data compiled by LSEG.

After cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the Dec. 17-18 meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers could now be "cautious" about further reductions.

Financial markets are betting the Fed won't cut rates again until June. Rate-futures contracts are then pricing in a second quarter-point interest-rate reduction by the end of the year.

That's pretty much in line with forecasts from Fed officials themselves last month, when the majority thought the short-term policy rate should probably end 2025 in the 3.75%-4.00% range, down a half a point from where it is now. (Reuters)

Uncertainties around U.S. policies could slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages.

They expect Trump's likely plan to raise tariffs to fuel volatility in global markets, raising inflationary pressures.

US Fed Meeting Live: What is the FOMC and when does it meet?

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 12.30 am IST. (1900 GMT).

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will then hold a press conference at 1:00 am

Donald Trump, who has already said interest rates should be lowered regardless while asserting he knows more about the matter than Fed policymakers, has in his first week in office provided a sample of the potential disruption ahead.

Fed officials could also change the statement that they release after each meeting to upgrade their assessment of the labour market, a signal that rate cuts may be delayed.

After the Fed announces its decision, Chair Jerome Powell will also speak with reporters, where he could give hints about whether the central bank is envisioning more cuts to rates this year. In December, the Fed helped send U.S. stocks to one of their worst days of 2024 after indicating it envisions cutting the fed funds rate just twice in 2025, down from an earlier projection of four times.

Stock traders took some risk off the table ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with a trio of tech heavyweights kicking off the megacap earnings season just days after DeepSeek rattled markets.

The S&P 500 fell ahead of results from Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Tesla Inc. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps dropped 1%, with Nvidia Corp. coming under renewed pressure. Apple Inc. slipped after an analyst downgrade. ASML Holding NV surged after booking orders worth twice as much as analysts expected. Treasuries and the dollar barely budged.

Stock markets diverged Wednesday as attention turned away from recent turbulence in tech markets to the outlook for interest rates, with the Fed and the ECB both holding their first major meetings of the year.

The Dow was up slightly in early New York trading, while the wider S&P and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were lower.

World markets were suddenly looking calmer on Wednesday as the week’s rollercoaster ride for stock markets turned into wait-and-see ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first rate meeting of the year and results from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla.

Wall Street's main indexes were subdued at the open on Wednesday, as losses in tech heavyweights Apple and Nvidia kept broader gains in check and investor attention turned to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, due later in the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 30.8 points, or 0.07%, at the open to 44,819.55. The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab fell 10.0 points, or 0.16%, at the open to 6,057.7​, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab dropped 37.9 points, or 0.19%, to 19,695.68 at the opening bell.

U.S. stock indexes are holding steadier, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates and after two days of disruption driven by doubts about the artificial-intelligence boom. The S&P 500 edged down by 0.1% in early trading on a packed Wednesday, which will also include earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Tesla after trading closes. The Dow was nearly unchanged, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.2%. AI darling Nvidia fell 1.8%, but its moves were more modest than in the prior two days. Treasury yields edged lower ahead of the Fed’s meeting, where it’s expected to make no move on rates.

Wall Street's main indexes were on track for a subdued open on Wednesday, as losses in tech heavyweights Apple and Nvidia kept broader gains in check and investor attention turned to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, due later in the day.

Markets widely expect the central bank to hold its lending rate steady in its decision, expected at 2 p.m. ET.

Fed Chair Powell said in December that the central bank has entered a “new phase,” in which it expects to move more deliberately after cutting its key rate to 4.3%, from 5.3% in the final three meetings of 2024. In December, Fed officials signaled they may reduce their rate just twice more this year. Goldman Sachs economists believes those cuts won’t happen until June and December.

World markets were suddenly looking calmer on Wednesday as the week’s rollercoaster ride for stock markets morphed into wait-and-see ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first rate meeting of the year and results from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla .

The Fed is widely expected to end a three-meeting run of rate cuts later and stay on hold, but investors will be eager to get a sense of just what it makes of new U.S. President Donald Trump's eventful first nine days back in charge.

There was plenty to be getting on with before that though.

European shares climbed to a record high as strong results from Dutch chip equipment maker ASML sent its stock soaring nearly 11% and hoisted the wider tech sector up 4.5%.

The rupee closed nearly flat on Wednesday after facing pressure early in the session, which was countered by dollar sales by state-run banks and as traders awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

The rupee closed at 86.54 against the U.S. dollar, barely changed from its close at 86.5225 in the previous session.

Gold prices were steady on Wednesday as market participants were cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due later in the day, while also pondering the implications of President Donald Trump's trade policies.

The dollar steadied on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision, with investors on edge for hints of how much interest rates might fall this year, while they broadly expect the central bank to keep policy unchanged for now.

At the Fed's previous meeting, policymakers also dialed back the number of rate cuts they expect this year to a median of just two, with some incorporating assumptions about Trump's likely economic policies into their forecasts, according to minutes of the meeting.