What caused IndiGo flight cancellations and what lies ahead for the airline's operations: Expert decodes

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Widespread flight cancellations and delays have plagued Indian airports, with IndiGo bearing the brunt of the disruption, cancelling over 150 flights and leaving thousands of passengers stranded. Social media has been inundated with accounts from travellers detailing their anguish over long delays and last-minute cancellations. The crisis has raised questions about its root causes, from new pilot duty regulations to potential technical failures.

Speaking with CNBC TV18, Devesh Agarwal, Chief Analyst at Bangaloreaviation.com, described the situation as a 'death by a thousand cuts.' He explained that a series of seemingly minor, unrelated incidents have compounded over the past week. "There were issues with weather down in Colombo and in Chennai. Then you had this Airbus A320 software issue come up. You have failure of a baggage belt in Delhi, you have some issue going on in Bangalore, you have some issue going on in Hyderabad," Agarwal noted.

However, Agarwal identified the new Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms as the 'coup de grâce' or the final blow. These regulations, which mandate more rest for pilots and crew, were implemented following increased global focus on Indian aviation safety after an AI 171 crash. According to Agarwal, airlines, including IndiGo, had successfully postponed these norms for years and likely expected another extension. When the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) did not grant a further extension, the situation became unmanageable.

In response to the crisis, IndiGo has announced a 10% reduction in its operational capacity. Agarwal views this as a "tacit admission" of the challenges but also a bold and professional move to reset the system. "At least they have been bold enough to say -- yes, we are cutting back capacity in an order to reset the whole situation," he stated.

From a market perspective, Agarwal, who disclosed he is an IndiGo shareholder, anticipates a short-term negative impact on the Interglobe Aviation stock. However, he remains confident in the airline's long-term prospects. "On the long-term basis, I think it's par for the course. The airline is very professionally run," he said. "IndiGo is going to have to restructure their network, going to ask the DGCA... they are going to do everything that they will to optimise the whole situation," he added.

The expert also suggested that IndiGo may need to restructure its unique point-to-point network to optimize crew deployment. Regarding concerns about losing airport slots due to reduced capacity, Agarwal clarified that the winter schedule slots are secure, as the season has already commenced. He believes IndiGo will meet the minimum operational requirements to retain its slots. The capacity cut is expected to increase passenger load factors, as the same number of travellers will be accommodated on fewer flights, although some passengers may shift to competing airlines.