Brokerage: CLSA | Rating: Outperform | Target: Rs 4,575
CLSA observed that the company’s FY17 return ratio was at a decade low due to weak margin and lower asset turns. It is not reflecting JP Associates’ plant acquisition in their forecasts. The buyout, it feels, could dilute CY18 EPS by over 24 percent given the uncertain timeline.
Brokerage: Jefferies | Rating: Hold | Target: Rs 3,585
The global research firm said that the company’s takeover of JP Associates’ cement assets is now a matter of time. It is factoring in a slower ramp up to cut FY18-19 volumes by 5-9 percent. Further, it said that FY18-19 EPS estimates is still 2-8 percent lighter by implying 20 percent CAGR in FY17-19. Risk reward appears balanced at 16x fy19 EV/EBITDA, the report added. Among risks, it said that JP Associates’ profitability improving quicker is a key upside risk, while on the downside, a longer time taken for the company’s integration could be negative.
Brokerage: Morgan Stanley | Rating: Underweight | Target: Rs 410
The brokerage house sees the company’s buyback plan as largely neutral to earnings. Further, it added, that this could boost its near term payout ratio.
Brokerage: Credit Suisse | Rating: Outperform | Target: Rs 450
The research firm believes there could be 150-200 basis points impact on brands and domestic textiles post GST rollout. It sees revenue impact due to de-stocking in channels in the first quarter. Having said that, the GST disruption, it believes, would be short term and temporary.
Brokerage: Kotak Securities | Target: Rs 570
The brokerage highlighted that the company’s annual report focuses on content and strengthening position in Hindi general entertainment channel (GEC). Further, it expects muted cash generation to continue in the current fiscal and normalize thereafter. It also cut EPS by 3-4 percent to factor in impact of GST. It likes Zee’s enhanced focus on content and will closely watch the new OTT offering.
Pharma
Brokerage: Citi
Accelerating approval timelines to help generic companies with large pipeline, the global financial services firm said in its report. Further, it said, that risk to base business for Sun and Glenmark, while it was the lowest for Aurobindo and Cipla, which are also its top picks in the space.
Cement
Brokerage: Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal believes that the demand could be muted year on year due to heavy base and demand uncertainty arising out of GST implementation. It expects price correction, particularly in North and Central markets. It likes stocks with good long-term earnings prospects and prefers scrips such as Dalmia Cement, Birla Corp, Ramco Cement, JK Cement and Shree Cement.
Aluminium
Brokerage: Credit Suisse
The brokerage house said that production halts announced in China in April finally coming through. It sees upside risks to thermal coal prices in China and companies such as Vedanta and Hindalco stand to benefit from these upside risks. It is modelling in USD 1,800/Tonne Of LME AI Price In FY18 Vs Spot Of $1,877/Tonne and said that every USD 50 per tonne hike adds 2-3% To FY18 EBITDA and 4-7% To Fair Value For Hindalco and Vedanta.
Hindalco remains a clean play on this potential price surge having entered a steady phase, it said in the report. Vedanta can reap benefits from operating leverages and from any upside in Zinc.
Information Technology
Brokerage: Nomura
The global research firm said that tempering of exuberance in BFSI and delays in deal flow decision making are few of the key things to watch. Any pushback in slower reallocation to digital could weaken acceleration in the current fiscal. In fact, it expects the first quarter of the current fiscal to slow and does not build growth acceleration for the current fiscal. Further, it sees a PAT decline of 0.5 percent year on year in the first quarter for Tier-I IT companies. Meanwhile, an appreciation in rupee and wage hikes could be the key headwinds to the margins.
On company-specific movements, it expects Infosys to cut FY18 constant currency revenue growth guidance to 6.5-7.5 percent year on year. Meanwhile, it sees HCL Technologies to retain guidance at 10.5-12.5 percent.
CLSA Oil and gas
Brokerage: CLSA
The brokerage house sees more downside in IOC/BPCL/HPCL even after 11-20 percent fall. It retained negative stance on these companies and believes that it will be a poor timing to buy it now. Further, GST and digital payment discounts lead to an earnings per share (EPS) estimates cut of 11/10/18 percent for these companies. It sees Q1 to be severely impacted due to large inventory losses
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