GREENP vol MDF grew by 25.1% YoY to 127KCBM with domestic MDF vol. (excluding commercial grade) increased by 30.5% YoY in Q2FY26 and margins stood at 10.7%, due to Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) scheme incentives of Rs60mn (still around Rs 400mn is yet to accrued) and improvement in new plant utilisation (reached to 40%). GREENP has guided for high-teen digit volume growth in domestic MDF segment with a margin of high single to double digit in FY26.
OutlookWe cut our earnings estimate by 6.0%/3.0% for FY27/28E and Maintained ‘BUY’ rating revised TP of Rs 399 (Rs 410 earlier), based on 22x Sep’27 earnings. The management has indicated timber price to remain stable in H2FY26. We estimate revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 14.6%/45.0%/49.8% over FY25-28E with MDF volume CAGR of 16.2%.
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