Agri Picks Report April 11, 2025: Geojit Financial Services

commodities

Geojit Financial Services's report on Daily Agri Picks

Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted a 'normal' southwest monsoon for India at 103% of the longperiod average, with an error margin of +/-5%. The season is likely to begin with relatively less rains, as the forecaster predicts rainfall in June at 96% of the long-period average. However, it is expected to increase from July, with rainfall during the month seen at 102%, that in August at 108%, and in September at 104%. According to Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh, this season, the La Nina weather phenomenon has been weak and brief. "Vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. However, the occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, has been ruled out," he said in a statement. El Nino–Southern Oscillation-neutral is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian summer monsoon, Singh said. The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together are likely to shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome. El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. The preliminary forecast of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole will work towards better monsoon prospects. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa. The prediction of another normal monsoon is likely to boost hope of robust kharif sowing in the coming season. India receives about 75% of its annual rainfall during the Jun-Sept period, making it crucial for sowing activities as well as reservoir replenishment.

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