Accumulat Greenpanel Industries; target of Rs 450 Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher recommended accumulate rating on Greenpanel Industries with a target price of Rs 450 in its research report dated October 29, 2024.

Broker Research

October 30, 2024 / 12:42 IST

Accumulate

26 Aug, 2025 12:21

Volume

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Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Greenpanel Industries

We downward revise our FY25 earnings estimates by 6.9% to account for weak performance in Q2FY25 and rising domestic competition, impacting MDF realization. GREENP has guided for domestic MDF volume growth of 15-18% (YoY) in H2FY25. However, we have considered MDF volume growth at 16% for H2FY25. MDF domestic realization decreased 4.4% YoY in Q2FY25 due to competitive pricing. MDF exports were also impacted by lower availability of containers and increased freight cost. We believe consolidated low EBITDA margin will continue in FY25 at 13.0% with 1) steep increase in timber prices, 2) higher OEM vol in the MDF segment, 3) lower domestic volumes, and 4) lower realization with competition in MDF. Timber prices will continue to impact margins in coming quarters. The management has indicated moderation in timber prices only with new crop arrival from FY26.

Outlook

We estimate revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15.9%/21.3%/23.8% over FY24-27E with MDF volume CAGR of 15.2%. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating with a TP to Rs450, based on 20x FY27E earnings.

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