Southwest CEO says US airline industry already in a recession

The Dallas-based carrier is more dependent on domestic leisure travelers for revenue than US peers with more extensive international operations and corporate business clients. (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

Southwest Airlines Co.’s chief executive officer isn’t waiting for economists to declare a technical downturn in the US economy: As far as he’s concerned, a recession already has started.

Noting demand for domestic leisure travel has dropped more than he’s ever seen outside of the pandemic, Bob Jordan said Thursday that an economic contraction is in full swing, at least in the US airline industry. The CEO said his company expects second-quarter revenue to fall by six percentage points, following a three-point decline in the first three months.

“I don’t care if you call it a recession or not, in this industry that’s a recession,” Jordan said in an interview.

Southwest is among a growing number of airlines pulling financial guidance for the full year as a lack of economic clarity feeds uncertainty among consumers, making it impossible to accurately forecast what will happen with travel demand and pricing for the rest of 2025.

The Dallas-based carrier is more dependent on domestic leisure travelers for revenue than US peers with more extensive international operations and corporate business clients. That leaves its bookings vulnerable to sudden shifts in American consumers’ sentiment.

“When consumers are uncertain, they pull back,” Jordan said. “Consumers can immediately stop spending.”