US Futures steady as weak hiring data fuels Fed rate cut bets; Salesforce, ConocoPhillips in focus

US Futures steady as weak hiring data fuels Fed rate cut bets; Salesforce, ConocoPhillips in focus

US stock futures were trading flat on Thursday after fresh labor market data pointed to slower private sector hiring, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 edged up 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 35 points, or 0.1%. The moves follow a mixed Wednesday session, with tech shares leading gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the Dow slipped as investors digested signs of labor market weakness.

The ADP private payrolls report showed companies added just 54,000 jobs in August, well short of the 75,000 expected and sharply below July’s revised 106,000 gain. The softer reading was seen as a potential green light for the Fed to deliver a long-anticipated September rate cut, though investors stopped short of interpreting it as evidence of an imminent recession.

Friday’s official non-farm payrolls report will be the key test for market sentiment, with Wall Street closely watching whether hiring momentum can sustain against a backdrop of softening job openings.

“Those pressures could build toward year-end, but I doubt we have a meaningful problem for the market rally until after the holidays,” said Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, citing ongoing resilience in what she called the “‘no hire, no fire’ economy.”

Corporate Moves Weigh on Sentiment

Salesforce shares slumped more than 7% in premarket trading after the cloud software company’s third-quarter revenue guidance disappointed investors. The company forecast sales between $10.24 billion and $10.29 billion, below Wall Street’s expectations, though it topped estimates for the prior quarter.

Energy was another pressure point after ConocoPhillips said it would cut up to 25% of its workforce this year, following a more than 10% slide in oil prices in 2025. The stock dropped over 4% on Wednesday, mirroring earlier industry layoffs announced by Chevron.

Policy & Trade in Focus

Trade also remains on the radar after former President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to expedite a ruling on tariffs, seeking to overturn lower court decisions that had deemed most levies illegal. Analysts at Bank of America suggested that even if the tariffs are struck down, Washington could rely on other legal provisions to reimpose duties, extending uncertainty for markets.

Later in the day, investors will parse the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August, with economists expecting a modest uptick to 50.8 from 50.1