Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 break below 25,000, Bank Nifty fall under 55,000 amid weak sentiment?

Nifty Trading Plan For September 25

Bears gradually seem to be gaining strength as the Nifty 50 remained under pressure for the fourth straight day on September 24. The index managed to defend 25,000, which can be considered immediate support. Below this, the 24,900–24,800 levels are to be watched. However, on the higher side, 25,150–25,250 are expected hurdles in the upcoming sessions. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty also looked weak after falling below the 50-day EMA. If the banking index fails to hold 55,000, the 54,900–54,700 zone can be the possible area to watch. However, resistance is placed at the 55,500–55,700 levels, according to experts.

On September 24, the Nifty 50 dropped 113 points to 25,057, while the Bank Nifty slipped 388 points to 55,122 with subdued market breadth. About 1,866 shares declined against 903 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Arun Kumar Mantri, Derivatives Trader and Founder of Mantri Finmart

The Nifty 50 has shown strong momentum in the current calendar month and has gained more than 2.5% on a MoM basis. On the weekly charts, after forming three consecutive green candles, the Nifty has shown some pause and is now hovering just above the 20- and 50-DMA, which may act as near-term support zones for the price.

On the technical front, any break above 25,200 will trigger a short-covering rally in the price, while a close below 24,800 will turn the trend from bullish to neutral, opening doors for 24,550–24,600 in the near term. Overall, we expect the markets to consolidate in the broad range of 24,800–25,400 for the short-term timeframe with a neutral bias.

Key Resistance: 25,250, 25,380

Key Support: 24,750, 24,800

Strategy: We advise short-term traders to adopt a “buy on dips” approach in the markets towards 24,900 (spot levels), keeping a strict stop-loss below 24,750, and placing targets at 25,250 and 25,300 levels.

On the derivatives side, short-term traders may build a Protective Put Strategy, where one can go long on futures at 25,000–25,050 levels and buy a Nifty September 30, 24,900 strike Put at Rs 35–40, keeping a strict stop-loss below 24,750 spot zones.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty has been consistently sustaining below the 21 EMA on the hourly chart, confirming a prevailing bearish trend in the near term. Moreover, each time the index approaches the 21 EMA, selling pressure emerges. On the lower side, the 25,000–25,050 zone is expected to act as a crucial support for the headline index. However, a decisive fall below 25,000 could trigger a deeper correction in the short term. Until then, the market is likely to remain range-bound over the next few days.

Key Resistance: 25,250, 25,500

Key Support: 25,000, 24,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty September 30, 25,100 strike Call above Rs 120, for a target of Rs 170, with a stop-loss of Rs 90.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities

The Nifty tested the 25,045–25,050 zone — the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 24,405 to 25,449 — and bounced, reaffirming this area as a critical near-term support. This cluster also coincides with the 20-day EMA, strengthening its relevance.

Momentum indicators reflect a slowdown in bullish strength. RSI has retreated to 52 from 68 seen on September 18, while the ADX shows DI+ easing and DI– picking up, with both lines converging — hinting at a potential shift in trend. Bollinger Bands indicate price cooling off from the upper band and gravitating toward the median, suggesting sideways action. Despite this pause, the index continues to hold above its short- and long-term EMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200), keeping the broader positive structure intact.

Key Resistance: 25,150, 25,200

Key Support: 25,050, 25,000, 24,800

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Arun Kumar Mantri, Derivatives Trader and Founder of Mantri Finmart

Bank Nifty has taken stiff resistance around the 55,700–55,800 levels, which were the August 2025 highs, and witnessed steep profit booking that again took the price below the key 50-DMA on the daily charts. The overall trend still seems to be neutral as long as 54,700–54,800 holds in the near term, while any break above 55,500 will trigger a second round of rally towards the 56,000 level in the short term.

We expect the broad range for the index to be 54,600–55,500 with a neutral bias, while any breach of the said levels may trigger a further 300–400 point move in the same direction.

Key Resistance: 55,500, 55,650

Key Support: 54,600, 54,700

Strategy: Aggressive short-term traders may go long in the index around 54,800–54,900, where the 100-DMA is placed, keeping a strict stop-loss below 54,600 for targets of 55,500 on the higher side.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Bank Nifty slipped lower, shrugging off the positivity from the previous session. On the downside, it found initial support at the 21 EMA on the daily timeframe. The RSI has entered a bearish crossover, indicating potential near-term weakness. In the short term, if Bank Nifty falls below 55,000, it could decline further towards 54,700 or even lower. However, if it manages to hold above 55,000, a strong rebound could be expected.

Key Resistance: 55,600, 56,000

Key Support: 54,700, 54,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty September 55,500 Call above Rs 200, with a stop-loss of Rs 150, targeting Rs 350.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities

Bank Nifty has shown relative resilience compared to the broader Nifty, as indicated by the steady uptrend in the ratio line. That said, the index has repeatedly faced rejection near the 55,660–55,670 zone over the past two sessions, which has capped the upside and triggered a mild correction. With Wednesday’s closing, the index broke below the 50-day EMA zone of 55,190–55,200, which had acted as strong support in the previous two days.

From an indicator perspective, momentum is gradually softening. The RSI has cooled to 51 from 63 a week ago, reflecting a loss of buying strength. The ADX composition shows DI+ drifting lower while DI– inches higher, signalling a weakening trend bias. Prices are also reverting from the upper Bollinger Band toward the median, reinforcing a consolidation phase.

Additionally, weakness in index heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank dragged sentiment lower.

Key Resistance: 55,500, 55,600

Key Support: 55,100, 55,000, 54,500