Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty defend last week's lows on F&O expiry day?

Nifty Trading Plan for November 25

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty corrected for another session on Monday, especially ahead of the expiry of monthly F&O contracts due on Tuesday. The Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 25,850-26,250 (previous week’s range) in the upcoming sessions. A decisive break on either side may give a clear direction, as a move below this range could strengthen the bears. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to sustain above 58,600 (previous week’s low). Falling below this level could open the door for 58,300, whereas sustaining above it could drive the index toward the 59,300-59,440 zone, experts said.

On November 24, the Nifty 50 declined by 109 points to 25,960, while the Bank Nifty slipped by 32 points to 58,835, with market breadth consistently favouring bears. About 2,160 shares were under pressure, compared to 724 shares that advanced on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Over the past three sessions, Nifty has formed a consistent lower-lows pattern, leading to an overall decline of nearly 300 points from the recent peak. Despite this corrective phase, the index is currently trading near its 21-day SMA, which has historically acted as a reliable support level during short-term pullbacks.

Additionally, the daily RSI remains comfortably above the 50 mark, suggesting that underlying momentum is still positive and the broader trend remains intact. Given these technical signals, a potential recovery in Nifty appears likely over the next few sessions, provided the index sustains above this key moving-average support.

Key Resistance: 26,100, 26,300

Key Support: 25,800, 25,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures near 25,900, with a stop-loss of 25,700, targeting 26,250.

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Nifty closed in positive territory for three consecutive weeks; however, it closed in the negative during the monthly expiry week, which is a negative sign, as it also closed below its critical support level of 26,000. On the upside, 26,000 will now be important to watch. If Nifty surpasses this level, there is a higher chance of recovery towards the 26,200 level. Otherwise, it may retest its VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) of the series at 25,750.

The India VIX has also moved up above the 13 level, almost after 3-4 months, indicating a probable downside in the near term for the equity markets. Based on these observations, the probability of Nifty trading sideways is quite high until it breaks above 26,200 levels once again. The broader range for the December series so far appears to be 26,500-25,500 levels.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200

Key Support: 25,750, 25,500

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Bank Nifty has witnessed sustained pressure over the last two sessions, slipping nearly 800 points from its recent high as sellers remained active. However, the index is now approaching its 14-day SMA, a zone that has frequently attracted buying interest during previous declines.

The daily RSI, holding firm above 55, indicates that strength has not entirely faded, and buyers still retain control on higher time frames. With momentum conditions stable and the index nearing a key technical reference, Bank Nifty may attempt to stabilize and stage a pullback in the coming sessions, provided it manages to stay above this short-term support band.

Key Resistance: 59,000, 59,400

Key Support: 58,500, 58,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on a dip to 58,600, with a stop-loss of 58,300, targeting 59,500.

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Bank Nifty also closed the previous week in positive territory; however, private sector banks are struggling to move higher due to a high Call base in the November series, which is causing resistance at higher levels.

The PSU banks have outperformed the private sector banks in recent times. However, if Bank Nifty breaks 59,500 on the upside, it could signal a fresh uptrend. Otherwise, it may consolidate within the 58,000-59,500 range. For Bank Nifty to perform well from here on, there needs to be solid contribution from the upside.

Key Resistance: 59,000, 59,500

Key Support: 58,000